Kamis, 06 Juni 2013

Apple -- Buying Tesla?

Apple is under pressure to unleash its "next big thing."  Apple's stock has dropped from highs that topped $700 and now trades at $440.  Expectations are high for next week's annual Worldwide Developers Conference (June 10-14).  Bottom line -- Tim Cook needs to excite both pundits and the Apple faithful again.

It is virtually a certainty that Apple next week will launch its long-anticipated "Pandora killer."  But, that certainly won't be enough.  The long-anticipated iWatch -- Apple's first new product category in a long time?  Perhaps.  But still not enough.

Apple's next really big thing most likely will be the iTV -- a beautiful flat-screen that seeks to disrupt the overall TV experience.  I have written about this several times -- and was amongst the first to expect this from Apple (when few believed that Apple would ever go there -- now most do).  Yes, that could be disruptive.  But, that won't happen next week.  It could happen later this year.

But, what about something entirely different and unexpected?  How about Apple moving into an entirely different product category that is completely out of left field and off the radar?  How about going someplace that essentially NO one would expect it to go?

What if Apple moves into the automobile market?

Sounds crazy?  Think about it.  Not really.  I had this "perhaps-not-so-crazy after all" thought on my way to the gym this morning.  As I listened to my Vampire Weekend, I thought it actually would make a lot of sense.  And, the natural entry point would be Tesla.  Buying Tesla -- a company about which I have written extensively and absolutely believe in.

Here's why?

Both Apple and Tesla are disruptive companies, redefining their respective industries.

Both Apple and Tesla are fundamentally "hardware" companies -- but both beautifully marry software and services with that hardware to create revolutionary product "experiences" that delight and evoke passion (and deep customer loyalty).  THAT is each company's special sauce.

Both Apple and Tesla's roots are in Silicon Valley -- and remain there, far removed from others in their markets.  In the heart of innovation -- in a location that attracts some of the greatest and most innovative and creative minds.

Both Apple and Tesla were founded and driven by visionary charismatic leaders.

And, finally, the automobile is -- just think about it -- a natural extension for Apple to take its experiential prowess, so long as it has the ability to execute.  It already has the dominated the mobile hardware market initially with the iPod, then the iPhone, then the iPad.  It absolutely will look to dominate the in-home experience with the upcoming iTV.  It makes sense strategically to overlay that experience into our out-of-home domains -- i.e., the car -- and immerse us seamlessly in cloud-based services.  Buying Tesla -- rather than creating its own "Tesla killer" -- is the only way to go.

It would be bold.  It would be brash.  And, it would be a great use of Apple's cash.  Cash which pours out of its coffers.

Apple's overall market cap is now $441 billion.  Tesla's is now $11 billion -- and its been on a tear.  And, I absolutely believe it will continue to rocket over time, because I believe Tesla is here to stay.  So, now -- or soon -- would be the time for Tim Cook to make that audacious move, assuming he has the stomach for it.

That, I believe he does.

But, would Elon Musk sell?  He certainly doesn't need to sell.  And, as I said, he is the new Steve Jobs.  He likely is in it for the long haul.  Why wouldn't he be?  He is revolutionizing the world with Tesla, SpaceX, Solar City.  He is taking a place in the history books.

Unless, just maybe, he considers it.  Unless Apple offers him and his shareholders a number that he and they can't refuse.

It would need to be an audaciously and ridiculously high number.

But, if anyone could do it, Apple could.

And, it makes a lot of sense ... a lot ....

I know it sounds crazy.

But, is it?

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