This post is for those of you who read my predictions, keep score, and are in the game of keeping prognosticators like me, honest. And, here's the deal. Although we are officially only 1 month into this brave new year of digital media, I am pleased to report that many of my predictions are already coming true ... and in a very big way.
Below are my actual Top 10 Predictions -- juxtaposed against where we stand on each as we enter only 2015's second month.
I. PREDICTION (1) -- this one was really a two-parter:
PREDICTION (1) Part 1 -- The mobile-driven premium short-form video YouTube economy “grows up,” and traditional media companies finally take notice on a mass scale. Shell-shocked studio executives internalize that digital-first platforms are where they must be to reach smartphone-obsessed millennials. MCN acquisitions will quicken as more studios jump into the M&A game rather than try to figure out this new content platform themselves. Some leading MCNs ripe for acquisition include ... sports-focused Whistle Sports (in which Manatt Venture Fund is invested).
THE REALITY FOR PART 1, 30 DAYS LATER -- Whistle Sports in early January announced a major $28 million investment from "traditional" media companies BSKYB and Liberty Global. Not M&A, but certainly strategic. Very.
PREDICTION (1) Part 2 -- International also becomes a major new battleground for these borderless video opportunities.
THE REALITY FOR PART 2, 30 DAYS LATER -- Whistle Sports again -- both BSKYB and Liberty Global are major international media companies based across the Pond. And, oh yes, there is also that little deal just announced this past week by mega-media companies Warner Bros., Sony Pictures Television and SingTel to essentially take over the OTT world in Asia. That qualifies in my book.
PREDICTION (1) Part 1 -- The mobile-driven premium short-form video YouTube economy “grows up,” and traditional media companies finally take notice on a mass scale. Shell-shocked studio executives internalize that digital-first platforms are where they must be to reach smartphone-obsessed millennials. MCN acquisitions will quicken as more studios jump into the M&A game rather than try to figure out this new content platform themselves. Some leading MCNs ripe for acquisition include ... sports-focused Whistle Sports (in which Manatt Venture Fund is invested).
THE REALITY FOR PART 1, 30 DAYS LATER -- Whistle Sports in early January announced a major $28 million investment from "traditional" media companies BSKYB and Liberty Global. Not M&A, but certainly strategic. Very.
PREDICTION (1) Part 2 -- International also becomes a major new battleground for these borderless video opportunities.
THE REALITY FOR PART 2, 30 DAYS LATER -- Whistle Sports again -- both BSKYB and Liberty Global are major international media companies based across the Pond. And, oh yes, there is also that little deal just announced this past week by mega-media companies Warner Bros., Sony Pictures Television and SingTel to essentially take over the OTT world in Asia. That qualifies in my book.
II. PREDICTION (2) -- Major consumer brands follow suit and act in earnest. Massive marketing dollars shift from traditional media to more measurable digital platforms in the form of branded content (not just ads), cannibalizing the former for the first time. Major investments are placed on ad-tech companies to maximize and measure those spends. We see a number of significant ad-tech exits like Yahoo!’s recent acquisition of BrightRoll for $640 million. Several brands go further and invest big to become digital-first lifestyle media companies themselves a la Red Bull, developing and aggregating content. GoPro, Pepsi and Marriott have proudly announced such ambitions.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- No major developments here ... yet! But, keep reading ....
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- No major developments here ... yet! But, keep reading ....
III. PREDICTION (3) -- Seeing all this activity, Silicon Valley investors increasingly make pilgrimages down South to the epicenter of media content – LA.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- I am based here in LA. I see this happening before my eyes. In fact, I saw it immediately out of the gates of 2015 at CES, where NorCal VCs were seen canoodling with LA based new digital-first video companies up and down the Strip.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- I am based here in LA. I see this happening before my eyes. In fact, I saw it immediately out of the gates of 2015 at CES, where NorCal VCs were seen canoodling with LA based new digital-first video companies up and down the Strip.
IV. PREDICTION (4) -- YouTube is increasingly under siege by new competing video platforms like Facebook and former Hulu chief Jason Kilar’s Vessel. These “off YouTube” platforms lure content creators away with promises of more compelling care, feeding and economics (including the tantalizing prospect of real subscription revenues).
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- Vessel officially set sail against the YouTube tide in private beta just in the past week -- and Facebook video is at the center of digital media exec conversations everywhere (I know, because I have been in many of such conversations). Oh yes, and don't forget Snapchat. Snapchat is now officially a media company, having launched an alternative video platform under the name Discover just this past week. I'd say this prediction already has been satisfied -- and we're only going into our second month!
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- Vessel officially set sail against the YouTube tide in private beta just in the past week -- and Facebook video is at the center of digital media exec conversations everywhere (I know, because I have been in many of such conversations). Oh yes, and don't forget Snapchat. Snapchat is now officially a media company, having launched an alternative video platform under the name Discover just this past week. I'd say this prediction already has been satisfied -- and we're only going into our second month!
V. PREDICTION (5) -- Traditional pay TV packages likewise increasingly are under fire in the “Great Unbundling” that began in 2014. What was unthinkable just one year ago (even 6 months ago!) became reality as HBO, CBS, Starz and others announced stand-alone over-the-top (OTT) services. A parade of others follow suit in 2015.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- And so it goes .... Even the kids aren't safe! Nickelodeon just yesterday announced its own stand-alone OTT service, joining this ever-growing list that we will need to re-visit continuously throughout the year.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- And so it goes .... Even the kids aren't safe! Nickelodeon just yesterday announced its own stand-alone OTT service, joining this ever-growing list that we will need to re-visit continuously throughout the year.
VI. PREDICTION (6) -- Traditional media companies facing these tectonic shifts in long-established business models – and major tech companies (Apple, Google, Amazon, Samsung) for which content is increasingly critical to fuel their own – take M&A seriously and one pulls the trigger as media and tech converges … literally.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- We're only 30 days into the year! Just you wait!
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- We're only 30 days into the year! Just you wait!
VII. PREDICTION (7) -- On the music side, massive moves are made away from business model-challenged stand-alone services (Spotify and Pandora both still operate at a loss). Like Apple buying Beats (which was never about the economics of Beats Music), numerous potential behemoth buyers exist.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- Yet another massive move just reported yesterday (a very busy day indeed in the world of digital media). Looks like Spotify is looking to find itself some extremely wealthy private buyers (not the anticipated IPO). Just reported that Spotify has hired our friends at Goldman Sachs to raise a $500 million round. Now watch as reactive sparks fly amongst the remaining stand-alone services that have any kind of mass. Spotify sings. Now the other guys dance.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- Yet another massive move just reported yesterday (a very busy day indeed in the world of digital media). Looks like Spotify is looking to find itself some extremely wealthy private buyers (not the anticipated IPO). Just reported that Spotify has hired our friends at Goldman Sachs to raise a $500 million round. Now watch as reactive sparks fly amongst the remaining stand-alone services that have any kind of mass. Spotify sings. Now the other guys dance.
VIII. PREDICTION (8) -- Gamers see real action too, as app developers increasingly focus on story-telling and compelling characters to build multi-platform media companies a la Rovio with Angry Birds. Rather than take traditional media properties and “gamify” them, these companies flip the model with an Apps-first approach. Finnish-based Silvermile and Seriously are two companies with Rovio roots to take … well … seriously. VR also enters the ring with gamers at mass in 2015.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- Yes, this is happening ... at an ever-accelerating clip. But, it is happening behind the scenes for now. No single story earth-shattering news just yet. But, like I said, we're only 30 days in!
IX. PREDICTION (9) -- Which leads to wearables, where we see an Oculus under every hard core gamer’s tree next year, alongside their parents’ new digital health/fitness watch.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- 2015 already marked a major milestone for Oculus and VR in general. Not directly on the gaming side. Rather on the cinema side, as Oculus unveiled the world's first major cinematic VR "experience" at the Sundance Film Festival. In my book, this qualifies at least as being on the right track. And, remember, we still have about 330 more shopping days until next XMAS -- so plenty of time to slip one under this coming year's tree.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- 2015 already marked a major milestone for Oculus and VR in general. Not directly on the gaming side. Rather on the cinema side, as Oculus unveiled the world's first major cinematic VR "experience" at the Sundance Film Festival. In my book, this qualifies at least as being on the right track. And, remember, we still have about 330 more shopping days until next XMAS -- so plenty of time to slip one under this coming year's tree.
X. PREDICTION (10) -- All of this leads to the big one – a concept I floated 1.5 years ago. Apple buys Tesla and installs Elon Musk as CEO. Now THAT would be a headline for 2015 … and for the ages!
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- We're not quite there yet, but Musk just announced a new software update -- read again, SOFTWARE UPDATE -- that actually makes Teslas go faster. That's still pretty damn cool!
No matter what you think about my Top 10 predictions -- or how the digital media world is tracking to them in the early days of 2015 -- it cannot be denied that there is a frenzy of activity. And that we are living in exciting and transformative times for the world of media and entertainment ... which is a world in which all of us live.
THE REALITY, 30 DAYS LATER -- We're not quite there yet, but Musk just announced a new software update -- read again, SOFTWARE UPDATE -- that actually makes Teslas go faster. That's still pretty damn cool!
No matter what you think about my Top 10 predictions -- or how the digital media world is tracking to them in the early days of 2015 -- it cannot be denied that there is a frenzy of activity. And that we are living in exciting and transformative times for the world of media and entertainment ... which is a world in which all of us live.
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