Minggu, 15 Februari 2015

Apple Buys Tesla? Signs Point to "YES" (... & How Musk Saved My Life ...)

Apple leaks a story that it's developing an electric iCar.  Tesla's stock drops.

Coincidence?  I think not.

Rather, I think this news supports the notion that Apple is, in fact, serious about the automotive industry and ultimately will buy Tesla (something I first predicted -- and laid out the rationale -- nearly two years ago on June 6, 2013).  And, if that's true, why not inject fear and doubt about Tesla in the market to better position itself for an ultimate acquisition.  After all, why build (a massively long and winding road as Forbes points out) when you can buy -- especially when Apple and Tesla share (shared) similar DNA and charismatic leaders.  Elon Musk is the Steve Jobs of our day ... taken to the Nth degree.  The Street would love it if Apple anointed Musk as its CEO (I laid this out recently in a separate blog post).  And rolling iPads are a logical "next frontier" for Apple.

I originally made my prediction when I bought my Tesla Model S -- well before subsequent rumors swirled months later about Apple and Tesla top execs met to discuss something massively strategic.

I am long on Tesla (own stock in the company as well as drive its car) -- and surmise that Apple is too.  Here's why.

(1) It's a great car.  Plain and simple.  It is revolutionary.  I still feel this way after driving the Model S for nearly 2 years and now over 35,000 miles.  My weekly commute is from San Diego to LA and back.  My Tesla continues to bring a smile on my face as I "zip" (well, that's a bit overstated) through the car pool lane with my "all electric" stickers;

(2) I am not alone in feeling this way.  I know several people who own Teslas.  ALL feel this way.  Once a Tesla owner, always a Tesla owner.  That's the kind of customer loyalty you simply don't see elsewhere.  That bodes well for the company long-term.  (Sounds a bit like how Apple customers feel about its products, no?).

(3) My Model S saved my life last week.  Am not kidding.  Back to that car pool lane I discuss above -- which, in SoCal -- is double yellow-line laden, signifying to other lanes that merging into it at those points is illegal.  For obvious reasons.  Unexpected movements as all cars go at the normal "flow" (75-80 mph) can (and frequently do) lead to tragic results.  That was the scenario last week -- when out of the corner of my eye I see a car TWO lanes over dangerously swerve between two high speed vehicles -- and then swerve directly into my lane (obviously didn't see me at those speeds).  In an instant -- literally the shortest instant -- I faced  this: (i) car swerves directly toward me across the double yellow line; (ii) with a concrete dividing barrier with just inches of clearance to my left (i.e., I am sandwiched); (iii) at high speed.  Absolutely no time to think.  Couldn't.  Didn't.  Pure instinct.  I slammed on the breaks (full slam at those speeds!).  I turn the wheel slightly to the left (and then back straight again in an instant).  Miraculously avoiding the inevitable sideswipe by no more than inches.  Miraculously screeching completely straight to an immediate and massive drop of speed.  And, miraculously having no car immediately behind -- rear-ending/slamming me -- ______ me (you fill in the blank of possibilities here).  Any single one of those factors off by just a hair, and the results at those speeds and with that traffic would have been tragic.  No doubt in my mind about that.  And any single flaw in the car's performance could (I think would) have led to disastrous results.  A very fine thread indeed ...

Faced with this scenario -- and all those factors -- my Model S performed.  Flawlessly.  Now THAT's a product (if you can call it that)!

I am long on Tesla.

Think Apple is too.  And Tesla's only imaginable home is within Apple's core.

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