My 2015 Predictions - Consolidated Guest Articles from TechCrunch, Variety, Billboard & VideoInk

CES 2015 is in the books -- and we are now firmly simply ensconced in 2015.  Time to rock and roll in all things that are digital media.  To that end -- consolidated here for your reading pleasure -- here are my predictions for media/music/digital media for 2015 (via my separate year-end guest articles in TechCrunch, Variety, Billboard, and VideoInk):

"The Future of Digital Media in 2015" -- from TechCrunch -- where I identify 8 specific predictions for the year (a longer "director's cut" version with 10 predictions can be found here via my separate post in LinkedIn)

"The 3 Digital Media Mega-Deals that Defined the Year" -- from Variety -- where I discuss the rationale for those 3 deals and discuss how they impact what we will see in 2015

"Five Predictions for Digital Video in 2015" -- from VideoInk -- this one is exclusively focused on video

And, finally, here is my single major music industry-focused prediction/theme for 2015 (and which is featured in the print edition of Billboard Magazine that is on your newsstands now ... will post it here as well if it goes online):

2015 is the year that the music business begins to understand and embrace the power and potential of deeply integrating technology and online fan engagement with offline live events.  For most artists, streaming services expand their “communities” of thirsty fans and will offer ever-more tools to engage directly with -- and monetize -- them (via both live event tickets and unique new live “experiences”).  Live events (especially major festivals) will fuel these direct interactions further (both online and offline) – and more effectively line their own pockets – by leveraging innovative new technology to capture invaluable attendee data that they will share with savvy artists.  And, rabid fans will happily hand over more dollars for closer artist connections and better live music experiences (including more efficient food, drink and merchandising sales at shows). 

10 Digital Media Predictions for 2015 -- My TechCrunch Guest Article (Extended "Director's Cut" Version)

Yesterday, TechCrunch posted my latest guest article titled "The Future of Digital Media in 2015."  Due to space constraints, several extended passages were edited out.  My full extended "Director's Cut" version of this piece is below.  

2014 proved to be a transformational year for content-driven digital media and investment (a new “golden age” of content I predicted for TechCrunch at the beginning of last year/2014).  For the first time, that investment – much of it SoCal-based -- finally took its rightful place in the sun even in the eyes of ever-skeptical NorCal venture capitalists.  It was easy to see why, given mega–deals like Disney Studios buying leading multi-channel network (MCN) Maker Studios for up to $1 billion, Facebook buying virtual-reality company Oculus Rift for $2 billion, Microsoft uploading Minecraft maker Mojang for $2.5 billion, Apple buying Dr. Dre’s Beats for nearly $3 billion, and Amazon snatching up live gamer site Twitch for $1 billion.  5 deals – nearly $10 billion.

So, what do these deals portend for 2015?  Certainly, accelerating digital media activity and focus – meaning billions of dollars of new bets placed by VCs, strategic investors and acquirers on content-driven opportunities.  Here are my Top 10 digital media predictions for 2015:

(1)  The mobile-driven premium short-form video YouTube economy “grows up,” and traditional media companies finally take notice on a mass scale.  Shell-shocked studio executives internalize that digital-first platforms are where they must be to reach smartphone-obsessed millennials.  MCN acquisitions will quicken as more studios jump into the M&A game rather than try to figure out this new content platform themselves.  Some leading MCNs ripe for acquisition include foodie-focused Tastemade, dance-focused DanceOn, Latino-focused Mitu, sports-focused Whistle Sports, and Collective Digital Studio.  (Note – Manatt Venture Fund is an investor in DanceOn and Whistle Sports is a client).  International also becomes a major new battleground for these borderless video opportunities (European media company RTL Group’s $150-$200 million acquisition of U.S.-based fashion-focused MCN StyleHaul is a recent indicator of more to come).

(2)   Major consumer brands follow suit and act in earnest.  Massive marketing dollars shift from traditional media to more measurable digital platforms in the form of branded content (not just ads), cannibalizing the former for the first time.  Major investments are placed on ad-tech companies to maximize and measure those spends.  We see a number of significant ad-tech exits like Yahoo!’s recent acquisition of BrightRoll for $640 million.  Several brands go further and invest big to become digital-first lifestyle media companies themselves a la Red Bull, developing and aggregating content.  GoPro, Pepsi and Marriott have proudly announced such ambitions.

(3)  Seeing all this activity, Silicon Valley investors increasingly make pilgrimages down South to the epicenter of media content – LA.  After all, even Andreessen Horowitz vouched for content via its $50 million investment BuzzFeed. 

(4)  YouTube is increasingly under siege by new competing video platforms like Facebook and former Hulu chief Jason Kilar’s Vessel.  These “off YouTube” platforms lure content creators away with promises of more compelling care, feeding and economics (including the tantalizing prospect of real subscription revenues).

(5)   Traditional pay TV packages likewise increasingly are under fire in the “Great Unbundling” that began in 2014.  What was unthinkable just one year ago (even 6 months ago!) became reality as HBO, CBS, Starz and others announced stand-alone over-the-top (OTT) services.  A parade of others follow suit in 2015 (which is not all bad for cable companies that benefit from the thirst for larger pipes).

(6)  Traditional media companies facing these tectonic shifts in long-established business models – and major tech companies (Apple, Google, Amazon, Samsung) for which content is increasingly critical to fuel their own – take M&A seriously and one pulls the trigger as media and tech converges … literally.

(7)   On the music side, massive moves are made away from business model-challenged stand-alone services (Spotify and Pandora both still operate at a loss).  Like Apple buying Beats (which was never about the economics of Beats Music), numerous potential behemoth buyers exist.

(8)   Gamers see real action too, as app developers increasingly focus on story-telling and compelling characters to build multi-platform media companies a la Rovio with Angry Birds.  Rather than take traditional media properties and “gamify” them, these companies flip the model with an Apps-first approach.  Finnish-based Silvermile and Seriously are two companies with Rovio roots to take … well … seriously.  VR also enters the ring with gamers at mass in 2015.

(9)  Which leads to wearables, where we see an Oculus under every hard core gamer’s tree next year, alongside their parents’ new digital health/fitness watch.

(10)  All of this leads to the big one – a concept I floated 1.5 years ago.  Apple buys Tesla and installs Elon Musk as CEO.  Now THAT would be a headline for 2015 … and for the ages!  Here is my extended discussion just on this one.

Apple Buys Tesla, Names Musk CEO -- My Bold Prediction for 2015

It’s that time of year again.  No, not the holidays!  I am referring to endless pundit and prediction time.  Most of which are tepid, at best.

So, how about a bold one for 2015?  I mean, really really bold.  If we’re making predictions, why not go big?  After all, our collective heads are swirling with egg-nog, so it’s time to venture outside the obvious and add a bit of “spice” and bravado.

Here it is -- here is my bold prediction for 2015.  Apple will buy Tesla.  And Elon Musk will become its new CEO, essentially crowning him publicly what many say privately -- i.e., that he is the next Steve Jobs (an honor he certainly has earned ... in spades).  Musk is THE tech visionary of our day.

Crazy?  Not so much.  The Street would LOVE it!  Just think about it.  Investors would run up the stock, as visions of new innovations danced in their heads.

Rumors were rampant about such discussions about one year ago.  And, there is a lot of logic to that kind of bold “1-2 punch." 

Well before last year's rumors -- a full 1.5 years ago in fact (in June 2013) -- I predicted this move and explained its rationale (read my full analysis here) (or for those of you who would rather skip the link and read, that full analysis is below).  I also consider Tesla to be a "digital media" company in many respects -- and discussed that point at just about the same time (click this link to that separate post).  

So, there it is -- many of my other predictions for 2015 will be coming shortly in Variety, TechCrunch and Billboard -- but this one’s, well, the most audacious and just plain “fun.”  

Here is my original June 2013 discussion, the logic of which perhaps applies even more now ....

Apple is under pressure to unleash its "next big thing."  Apple's stock has dropped from highs that topped $700 and now trades at $440.  Expectations are high for next week's annual Worldwide Developers Conference (June 10-14).  Bottom line -- Tim Cook needs to excite both pundits and the Apple faithful again.

It is virtually a certainty that Apple next week will launch its long-anticipated "Pandora killer."  But, that certainly won't be enough.  The long-anticipated iWatch -- Apple's first new product category in a long time?  Perhaps.  But still not enough.

Apple's next really big thing most likely will be the iTV -- a beautiful flat-screen that seeks to disrupt the overall TV experience.  I have written about this several times -- and was amongst the first to expect this from Apple (when few believed that Apple would ever go there -- now most do).  Yes, that could be disruptive.  But, that won't happen next week.  It could happen later this year. 

But, what about something entirely different and unexpected?  How about Apple moving into an entirely different product category that is completely out of left field and off the radar?  How about going someplace that essentially NO one would expect it to go?

What if Apple moves into the automobile market?

Sounds crazy?  Think about it.  Not really.  I had this "perhaps-not-so-crazy after all" thought on my way to the gym this morning.  As I listened to my Vampire Weekend, I thought it actually would make a lot of sense.  And, the natural entry point would be Tesla.  Buying Tesla -- a company about which I have written extensively and absolutely believe in.

Here's why?

Both Apple and Tesla are disruptive companies, redefining their respective industries.

Both Apple and Tesla are fundamentally "hardware" companies -- but both beautifully marry software and services with that hardware to create revolutionary product "experiences" that delight and evoke passion (and deep customer loyalty).  THAT is each company's special sauce.

Both Apple and Tesla's roots are in Silicon Valley -- and remain there, far removed from others in their markets.  In the heart of innovation -- in a location that attracts some of the greatest and most innovative and creative minds.

Both Apple and Tesla were founded and driven by visionary charismatic leaders.

And, finally, the automobile is -- just think about it -- a natural extension for Apple to take its experiential prowess, so long as it has the ability to execute.  It already has the dominated the mobile hardware market initially with the iPod, then the iPhone, then the iPad.  It absolutely will look to dominate the in-home experience with the upcoming iTV.  It makes sense strategically to overlay that experience into our out-of-home domains -- i.e., the car -- and immerse us seamlessly in cloud-based services.  Buying Tesla -- rather than creating its own "Tesla killer" -- is the only way to go. 

It would be bold.  It would be brash.  And, it would be a great use of Apple's cash.  Cash which pours out of its coffers.

Apple's overall market cap is now $441 billion.  Tesla's is now $11 billion -- and its been on a tear.  And, I absolutely believe it will continue to rocket over time, because I believe Tesla is here to stay.  So, now -- or soon -- would be the time for Tim Cook to make that audacious move, assuming he has the stomach for it.

That, I believe he does.

But, would Elon Musk sell?  He certainly doesn't need to sell.  And, as I said, he is the new Steve Jobs.  He likely is in it for the long haul.  Why wouldn't he be?  He is revolutionizing the world with Tesla, SpaceX, Solar City.  He is taking a place in the history books.

Unless, just maybe, he considers it.  Unless Apple offers him and his shareholders a number that he and they can't refuse.

It would need to be an audaciously and ridiculously high number.

But, if anyone could do it, Apple could.

And, it makes a lot of sense ... a lot ....

I know it sounds crazy. 

But, is it?