Rabu, 24 April 2013

Q4 2013 -- Apple's iTV Finally Launches?

Apple announced its latest quarterly earnings just yesterday.  And, it was eye-opening.  Not unexpectedly, Apple's Red Bull-fueled earnings & profits have fallen back to Earth.  Apple appears to be "human" after all.

And, that clearly doesn't sit well with CEO Tim Cook, who certainly is feeling the heat to reverse the company's significant stock slide.  After all, the company now only has $145 billion in cash!  In today's earnings call, Cook confessed that "decline in stock price has been very frustrating to all of us."

So, what's a Cook to do in the kitchen to reverse the slide?

Here's a tantalizing ingredient to which Cook referred in his earnings call.  In his words, "The key to Apple's strength is creating innovative products, and that is always in Apple's control."  One more hint. Cook focused on Q4 in terms of timing, saying "I don't want to be more specific, but we've got some really great stuff coming in the fall and across all of 2014."  Elsewhere in his call, he also seemed to be moving past this summer and focused on the "fall."

Hmm, what could this be?

Well, it can't simply be new versions of existing products.  Yes, there will be a major upgrade to the iPhone at some point.  But, that won't be enough to energize the Apple faithful.  What the masses (including me) crave is product "disruption" -- an entirely new product.  Of course this could be the current mass media darling "smart watch."  Timing for such an announcement (yes, I'll be playing here all week) feels about right.

But, it could be something even more revolutionary in my view -- and that is the long-anticipated "iTV" -- Apple's foray into its next major and inevitable frontier -- i.e., the big (very big) screen that rests on your wall in your living room.  I have anticipated this move for years -- well before (yes, I'll take credit) virtually all other pundits jumped on the belief train.

Make no mistake.  The ghost of Steve Jobs absolutely positively wants to sit next to you on your living room couch.  And, believe me, you will pay for the honor to have an immaculate new multi-media "experience" within the four walls of your home.  It's not just TV.  It will be full immersion -- and seamless integration of hardware with content and services.

What continues to hold up this inevitable disruptive product launch?  Content, that's what.  Major media has, thus far, refused to play ball with Apple when it comes to licensing the television programming Apple needs to make the iTV the most impactful experience it can be.  Particularly critical is live sports like ESPN.  This ain't the days of the iPod and iTunes when Steve Jobs took advantage of major media's "deer in headlights" state-of-mind as music moguls faced the daily onslaught of piracy (Kazaa anyone?) that hastened the demise of the traditional music business.   (As an aside, I continue to find it fascinating that Kazaa's founders have now been long considered to be "traditional" media players and are adored by that same major media that swore vengeance "Game of Thrones"-style back in the day!).

So, Cook is either alluding to Apple's new "iWatch" or -- hopefully -- Apple's long-overdue disruptive "iTV."

If not Fall 2013, iTV absolutely will launch in 2014.  Apple cannot wait any longer than that to quell the masses who long for product innovation blood.  As an Apple shareholder (don't worry, a tiny one), but more importantly as an avid consumer of disruptive products, I certainly hope it is later this year ....

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