So, will it be the kind of "big thing" that will excite the Apple flock? And, if so, what will "IT" be? (I discuss that question with USA TODAY's Jefferson Graham later today on his video show -- and then, once again, Thursday night LIVE at 5 pm Pacific/8 pm Eastern on his "Talking Tech" radio show via TuneIn Radio).
Four big buckets of announcements are expected -- (1) Apple Watch, (2) iTunes Music, (3) Apple TV, and (4) iOS9.
(1) APPLE WATCH -- No big surprises here. Tim Cook will update us all on the expected massive initial numbers for Apple's latest product expansion (and also impress us all with the increasing number of native apps that require no iPhone link). (I just got mine shipped this past week and am wearing it now for the first time as I write this -- that is mine in the picture above -- NOTE to Cupertino: I tried to change the time to 6:08 to make it more relevant to Tim Cook's June 8th keynote, but the settings weren't very intuitive).
(2) ITUNES MUSIC -- Apple bought Beats last year for $3 billion for a reason -- and, this reason finally comes to light next week when Apple announces its new "Spotify Killer" $10/month subscription service. No ad-free alternative here -- it's all-or-nothing with this new service (although a limited free trial period is expected). So, what is Apple's "special sauce" to make a dent in the Spotify machine? Actually, the Apple core has a good story to tell here.
First -- the Apple juggernaut is just that ... a juggernaut. It is a marketing machine -- with both online and offline (retail) channels. Spotify can't compete with that. If Apple wants to make a dent, it can by its sheer heft. It can simply throw gazillions of dollars at the problem/opportunity. There is nothing else like it. That's the beauty of being the most valuable company in the world. Short-term losses are no problem if they lead to long-term success. And, Apple's tantalizing prospect is to convert a significant portion of its 110 million iTunes users (who spend an average of $30/year) to a subscription model (yielding $120/year instead). Which leads me to my next point ...
... Second, unlike Spotify, Apple's iTunes subscription service can be a success even if it loses money because, ultimately, it functions as marketing for Apple hardware (iPhones, Apple Watches, etc.) (Here's my separate relevant discussion/analysis in the context of Apple v. Netflix of why this is the case). Spotify doesn't have that luxury. Spotify must make money from the service itself -- and, that hasn't happened yet (no matter how massive it is -- with 86% of the U.S. on demand streaming market, 15 million paying subs worldwide, and $1 billion annual revenues).
Third -- and more important than most people think -- unlike Spotify, Apple takes great strides to portray itself as being creator and artist-friendly -- and that matters. Spotify proudly trumpets its emotion-free tech-first heritage -- and has lost some allies along the way because of it (Taylor Swift, anyone?). But, emotional appeal matters -- because humans (especially artists!) are emotional. Apple's fearless leader Steve Jobs set the tone in this regard by smartly placing artists first in his initial iTunes/iPod marketing (which was natural, since he was very much an artist himself). And Apple's Tim Cook stayed true to this DNA when he bought Beats in significant part to bring Jimmy Iovine and Dr. Dre into the fold (and, consequently, all of those other artists who respect them). By doing that, Cook bought numerous allies that can help him shape a differentiated user/listener experience. Listen closely next week. That artist savvy will permeate discussion and functionality of the new service (with significant impacts to Pandora as well).
(3) APPLE TV -- everyone expects Apple TV to get a major face-lift next week (clues in this regard were obvious in the WWDC invitation itself), but how "major" will that face-lift be? Will "IT" simply be "a better little square box" -- or will it be the long-anticipated full-fledged all-in-one beautiful flat-screen iTV? As much as I would like to say the latter, I don't expect it ... yet (although that day will come). But, the Apple TV "hobby" we know and love (at least some) will have more power ... including new features like Siri integration and initial hints to home automation ... and, most significantly, may even come with its own new OTT streaming service (aka "Netflix Killer"). Apple has long faced major hurdles with studios and broadcasters to license a critical mass of content -- and those challenges continue -- so it's not certain that Cook will yet announce the on-demand streaming video service. But, I think he will. Cupertino lawyers are feverishly trying to ink those final deals right now -- and they can be persuasive (after all, Apple's war chest doesn't hurt).
But, once Apple does launch its inevitable OTT video service, can it make a dent in the Netflix machine?
I absolutely think it can -- and for many of the same reasons that apply in the music/Spotify discussion above. In fact, I previously wrote about Apple v. Netflix at length -- analyzing the threat Apple poses to the market leader. Definitely worthy of a read (as self-promotional as that sounds). And, don't forget, Apple's inevitable OTT video service will feature both VOD and live linear TV (including ESPN). Netflix certainly doesn't have that.
(4) iOS 9 -- Virtually everyone expects new iOS 9 to be announced next week -- which makes sense since it is a developers conference after all. Yes, this ain't the sexy stuff, but it is still "stuff" that matters to us all -- because the OS defines our individual user experiences.
Any major "gasp"-worthy new functionality in iOS 9? Not really (although there is some chatter about some early Augmented Reality (AR) functionality) -- which follows Apple's recent purchase of AR company Metaio. Performance will be optimized -- and some "nice to haves" that many others have already discussed. But, it's always nice to get new features.
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