Netflix - The Champ's Achilles Heel

Netflix is killing it. And its investors are on a high – literally. Its stock is at an all-time high on the heels of reporting its highest quarterly subscriber growth numbers ever. What could go wrong? You have Netflix. I have Netflix. We all have Netflix. And, that “We” is increasingly global (since more than half this past quarter’s growth came from outside U.S. borders).

But, make no mistake. Netflix’s long-term challenges are real, they are daunting, and they come directly from Netflix’s Achilles Heel – its own one-dimensional business model (for an excellent separate detailed analysis of Netflix's relevant metrics and financials, read "The State and Future of Netflx v. HBO in 2015" by Liam Boluk, recently published in Redef).  

You see, Netflix is a pure-play video service.  The company monetizes that subscription service only.  That means that Netflix must be profitable based on content revenues alone (unless and until it finds a way to expand beyond that – (more on that later).

Compare that to Apple. Remember them? Oh yeah, digital media’s worst-kept secret is very much alive again -- i.e., Apple hopes to launch its long-anticipated (overdue?) OTT “Netflix Killer” subscription service by fall. Apple's business model is fundamentally different than Netflix's.  For Apple, its "coming soon" OTT video service can be (and likely will be) a loss leader -- a losing proposition that ultimately wins for the Cupertino crew.  Here’s why.

Apple's core DNA is unlike Netflix's.  Apple benefits from multiple revenue streams. And, although the company frequently positions itself more broadly as being a media company, its primary stream is very un-Netflix-ian – it is hardware-driven pure and simple. Apple makes money (boatloads of it) by selling “cool” metal -- iPhones, iPads, Apple Watches, Apple TVs (and ultimately the iTV?).  That means that Apple's new subscription video service essentially will be a "marketing" expense that drives incremental hardware sales.  That also means that Apple can (and will) subsidize its content licensing costs in order to keep its subscription pricing down. Netflix can’t do that.

So, how scared should Netflix (and its investors) be of Cupertino and the host of other behemoths soon invading Netflix’s OTT turf? And, what can Netflix do?

First, let’s be clear. Netflix has a formidable head start and I’m not saying that the “mother of all OTTs” will go away anytime soon. But, that alone is not enough. After all, unlike Netflix, Apple is expected to offer both VOD AND live/linear TV (likely including both ESPN and HBO).  And, switching costs are low (essentially non-existent). All you need to do is go online and cancel.

So, Netflix can try to contain the inevitable Apple threat (and the threat of all other Apple-like behemoths) in at least five ways – the first two of which also lead to diversification: 

• Take its formidable lead and find a way to effectively mine and monetize the data it has already collected on all of us;
• Continue to develop and feature kick-ass exclusive original content like House of Cards and Orange Is the New Black that can monetize not only via individual subscriptions, but also via global content licensing deals. That original content can also deflect at least some of the Apple threat in a very HBO-like way. After all, will those passionate audiences abandon their favorite characters? Likely not;
• Continue to offer and deepen its pool of content (including via exclusive licensing) that Apple can’t match … at least for a long time;
• Emulate Apple, Sling TV and now also Sony VUE by adding live/linear TV programming to the mix (including the critical ESPN ingredient); and
• Offer lower pricing with an $8.99 monthly new sub charge that Apple and others likely won’t match (after all, under its recently announced deal, Apple will charge Apple TV customers $14.99 for stand-alone OTT HBO Now by itself). 

Of course, many of these counter-attacks will be increasingly harder to do based on the significant costs involved – and the pressure they place on Netflix’s Achilles Heel. 

But, there’s also always M&A. After all, the much-anticipated Apple threat is not just a threat to Netflix. It is an ear-splitting shot across the bow of myriad global players in the video game. So look around. Which of those players have multi-faceted business models (like Apple), a heavy dose of media in their strategies (like Apple), and plenty of cash to make a run at Netflix? Hmmm … let me think …. Google, Samsung and Amazon come to mind ...

… I’m just sayin’….

Top 5 Reasons Coachella Weekend 2 Beats Weekend 1 (Your "Cheat Sheet" Rationalization ...)

This will be my 7th straight Coachella -- and first with my wife, Luisa.  We are setting sail for Indio in 2 days.

Virtually every year I go the first weekend.  But, not this year.  This year we're trying out Weekend #2 -- shaking it up ... (not because we couldn't get tix for Weekend #1 ... no, that couldn't be it ...).

... which begs the question ... which Coachella weekend is better?  Weekend #1 or Weekend #2 (especially when Weekend #1 is the more obvious answer to most of you)?

Here are my Top 5 reasons Weekend #2 beats Weekend #1 -- and is the way to go, especially this year:

(1) I'll concede that it's tough to argue with the "new-ness" of Weekend #1 for both fans and artists/bands -- ALL of it is new to everyone (which alone generates great anticipation).  BUT, Weekend #2's sets likely will be "tighter" than Weekend #1's sets -- many artists/bands will modify their sets based on what worked (and what didn't).  That's a good thing for hard-core music fans.

(2) Speaking of ... Yes, it's true, one main reason for "real" hard-core, non-poser festival-goers like me (yes, I happily make that claim and can back it up) to attend festivals is to discover great music by under-the-radar artists and bands.  Music discovery in its purest form.  But, this year's headliners and overall line-up are much weaker than last year's killer year.  So, those of us going this weekend benefit from knowing about Weekend #1's buzz-worthy artists and performances.  So, while serendipity will still be a huge part of the experience for me, Weekend #1's social media "curation" will help make the most of the weekend (at least that's what I'm telling myself ...).

(3) Last year, many of the most buzz-worthy surprise guests took the stage during Weekend #2 -- and those live collaborations are always cool to watch.  Let's hope this happens again this year during Weekend #2.

(4) This year (not surprisingly) Weekend #2 will be hotter (literally!) than Weekend #1 by about 10 degrees -- approaching a very desert-like 100 degrees.  "This is a good thing?", you ask?  Well, just hear me out.  For those of you who, like me, have attended for years, there is something downright magical about the oven-roasting heat that paradoxically brings out even more energy and sunshine vibes in the crowds -- and certainly more free unbridled individual personal expression (how's that for putting it?).  Expect thousands more to spend significant time and dance with garlands in their hair in the ubiquitous water zones for which Coachella is famous.  Water guns here, there, everywhere.  Who can resist that?  Not even I!  Water brings out a certain "not a care in the world" emancipation that is fundamental to the Coachella experience.  Fun.  Hilarious.  Invigorating.  You see, heat can be a good thing!

(5) Drum roll please for Reason # 5 ... did I mention the heat?

See you at Coachella!

(okay -- keeping it very real -- I can easily make the case for Weekend #1 -- but why try? -- why not rationalize this year's choice?  Use this as your cheat sheet!)

Tavern In Brentwood - Digital Media's New Power Spot

The "Power Lunch," a Hollywood tradition (here's a great New York Times article that lays out that history -- and the various "power" spots along the way).

Well, welcome now to the "new" digital Hollywood tradition -- the "Power Breakfast" at the Tavern in Brentwood.  Yes, times have changed.  Digital media -- mobile/tech -- is transforming media and entertainment before our eyes.  So, not surprising that new transformative times demand a new spot -- and earlier, healthier meals -- to meet, discuss those times, and reach deals to accelerate them.

Case in point -- last week.  As I strolled in a few minutes after the Tavern's 8 am opening, Keyvan Peymani (Head of Digital for ICM) sat at a table in the atrium straight across from me, Lee Essner (President & COO of Jukin' Media) sat at a table to his left, and JC Cangilla (SVP, Business Development at New Form Digital -- Ron Howard's and Brian Grazer's new digital-first media company) sat across the room -- and this was just in the first 15 minutes or so.  Putting an exclamation on this point, Jeffrey Katzenberg sat at a corner table, likely also discussing the changing times in which we all find ourselves -- and the tremendous opportunities to innovate in this new Golden Age of content.

Great setting.  Great food.  Great meetings ....

(And, no, I have no ownership interest ... just like the place!)

SLUSH "Must Attend" Digital Media/Tech Conference in Helsinki -- It's Coming!

SLUSH - which has emerged as one of Europe's leading tech conferences - is coming (sooner than you think - so plan accordingly now).  SLUSH is held in Helsinki, Finland and falls on November 11th and 12th this year.  I attended my first last year (here is my review and some highlights), and it is now one of my few "must attend" events this year.  And, this year I plan to give a keynote about the state of the MCN (er ... I mean, MPD) world from a much-needed global perspective -- and will augment that with a fireside chat with leaders in that space representing both Euro and U.S. perspectives.

I recently sat down with both Petri Vilen, SLUSH's Chief Curator (top left), and Pauli Kopu, SLUSH's creative czar (lower left) at SXSW and we spoke at length about the event's origins, ambitions and future.  They are nothing if not ambitious -- and it is that ambition, together with talent, innovation and dedication -- that have catapulted SLUSH to the forefront of the tech event world in just a short few years.  SLUSH's vision is to be the Davos for tech startups and investors.  But, SLUSH's definition of tech has expanded (as it should) into digital media as well in a big way.  Last year 14,000 attended (including 750 investors representing 140 venture capital funds and 100 senior M&A execs) -- the majority of whom hail from Northern Europe for sure, but are increasingly global -- with the next most significant attending delegations being from Russia, the U.K., Germany, China, Japan, and the U.S.

Why such an international flair?  Just think about Helsinki, Finland's geography.  The city sits at the perfect juncture where the East meets the West (or, vice-versa) -- and with inclusive, worldly sensibilities as a result.

Hey Hollywood, Silicon Valley and Madison Avenue!  SLUSH should be on your list.  Yes, you know about Rovio and Supercell.  But, Finland is not just about gaming anymore.  Massive tech innovation is abounding all around in the that great white north -- where innovative minds buzz with their coffee 24/7 amidst the increasing darkness (and, well, slush) of the later months.

And it is a worthy goal in and of itself to get outside your comfort zones and travel beyond your borders (both mentally and physically) to hear and truly internalize non-U.S. perspectives.

My 1,500th Post -- Tying It All Together -- This One Is Personal (Very)

This is it -- my 1,500th post -- since I first started back on October 11, 2006 (and not counting my countless guest posts for the likes of TechCrunch, Variety, Billboard, Wired, Business Insider, The Huffington Post, Venturebeat, VideoInk and more over the years and soon-to-be Forbes).  My first post -- very appropriately to where we are today in the digital media and fast-transforming video world in particular -- focused on Google's then-recent acquisition of YouTube.  That means nearly 3.5 posts per week -- or, every other day -- and that means a lot of very early mornings when I could (should?) be sleeping.

Back then -- when I launched my first thoughts into the ether (at the prodding of digital media influencer and communications specialist Andy Abramson) -- I was CEO of video chat and community tech company SightSpeed (later acquired by Logitech in 2008).  Next, CEO of video tech grand-daddy Sorenson Media.  And now -- for almost nearly 2 years -- CEO of Manatt Digital Media.  All of this follows a media/tech-focused career starting in a very non-entertainment kind of way for its first year -- i.e., as a law clerk for a federal judge (in Hawaii, no less!).  Then, as an entertainment/media lawyer at a major firm (Paul, Hastings -- where my biggest client was notorious rap group N.W.A.).  Which then morphed into increasingly senior business exec positions for 7 years in major media companies (Universal Studios, New Line Cinema, Savoy Pictures).  A series of digital media start-ups followed -- first a 3 month blip at IPO-failing Egreetings at the "turn of the century" (more on that later).  Next, eNow (later acquired by AOL under the name Relegence), which was my first real entrepreneurial operations role (COO) -- and, then, digital music pioneer Musicmatch, where I served as President & COO (and was later acquired -- and killed -- by Yahoo! for $160 million in 2004).

Why lay this all out?

Well, just indulge me if you have the patience, because this one is personal.  Very.

Over my 25+ year professional career (my god, are you kidding me?), I have seen, lived amongst and internalized massive shifts in the worlds of media and tech (can you even imagine a world without the Internet and mobile?).  I also have seen -- and lived and worked in the midst of -- both mega, "traditional" media companies (Universal Studios) and true startups scratching and scraping for their first investment dollars and revenues (eNow).  And -- interestingly -- now just about everything in between.  Quite rare, methinks (which is kinda' cool, also methinks).

From my earliest days, I digested and internalized the value of content and IP (which is now simply part of my DNA and which still drives virtually all of my writing ... and my business).  I learned the art and value  of "the deal" (and especially just getting the deal done! -- a lesson which I learned the hard way at times).  I negotiated agreements and partnerships ranging from $1 to multi-billion dollar international joint ventures (Universal Studios Japan).  I raised financing from VCs (and also certainly had a front-row seat to the rejection game).  I built teams and ran companies (and saw a lot of what worked, and a lot of what didn't, in terms of leadership, dedication and tenacity).  I sat on both sides (buy and sell) of the M&A table (most of which achieved their ultimate goal, including 3 of 4 ultimate exits for companies I helped lead).  I worked with great talent (and also with execs who drove morale into the ground).  I mentored great talent.  I spoke (nay, frequently pontificated passionately).  I wrote (more pontification).  And, I had great fun (mostly, but certainly not always ... and certainly with much stress at times ... as do all entrepreneurs).

In as sense, I believe I have kind of seen it all in the world of media-meets-tech-meets-media.

Most of all, I'll repeat the concept of "fun" -- a general theme I hope to achieve each day and in everything I do.  And, I'll underscore the one point that I am perhaps most proud of in my professional career -- that is, ultimately choosing a road less traveled.  A road of more risk.  Less certainty.  And certainly not the direct one.

I made many gut Gladwell-ian "blink" decisions that took me from here to there along this non-linear path.  Some of these were absolutely stupid and career head-scratchers at the time (including that 3 month "blip" at fast-tanking digital greeting company Egreetings - a decision my astute wife, Luisa, never understood from the very first).  But, even that bone-head decision can't be "blamed" in retrospect, because that decision -- which seemed fatal to my career at the time -- led to each subsequent decision that, in turn, led me to the professional life I lead today.  And, that professional life, which is based on a professional decision two years ago (that, in turn, ultimately flowed from that bonehead decision 15 years ago), is just plain great.  It ties together all of these myriad strings along the way.  Right here, right now, I can honestly write that I have never been more fulfilled professionally.   I feel like I am doing exactly what I should be doing, right here, right now.  And, that's a great feeling to have.

I have deep independence and am trusted (thanks for that Hale Boggs and Bill Quicksilver).  And of  special thanks, of course, to my best friend and brother since 2nd grade Chad Hummel, my fellow partner at Manatt who introduced me to this amazing opportunity in the first place.  How cool is it that we now work together?  And, how rare is that?  Remarkable, really.  I work closely with great, talented, innovative, dedicated people (absolutely essential ingredients).  I am deeply immersed in the belly of the innovation and transformational media-meets-tech-meets-media beast.  I have the privilege of continuous interaction and meetings with all players in the overall media/tech eco-system -- execs from major media companies and brands, agents/managers, financiers, entrepreneurs, press.  Advising.  Deal-making.  Mentoring.  Speaking.  Writing.  Continuously learning ...

I love it.  Deeply love what I do.  That's why I write.  That's why I consider myself to be a journalist -- that label matters to me.  And, it means a lot to me when I hear that some of my thoughts strike home and are meaningful to you (and when USA Today's long-time tech writer, Jefferson Graham, just called my Digital Media Update blog a "must read").

But, as cliche as this sounds, it is absolutely true -- my true passion is my amazing family led by my wife of nearly 20 years, Luisa (we first met in 1993), and our two extremely creative kids Hunter (our girl, 15) and Luca (our son, 12).  Luisa is many many things -- but I'll focus on two critical qualities -- she is adventurous ... and fearless.  And, she has instilled and deepened those qualities in me, enabling us both to take our circuitous (and frequently risky "without a net" path) that I absolutely recommend to everyone -- including Hunter and Luca.  YOLO after all!

If nothing else, we have lived a life of passion.  Not compromising.  Doing what matters to us.  Not doing what is expected of us.

It's been an exciting, frequently scary, ride.  But, I truly wouldn't have done it any other way.

Thanks for being part of it.  Reading these posts.  Hopefully finding some nuggets of insights at times.

And sometimes just being amused by my musings ... because, amusement is a worthy goal in life in and of itself, right?

Everfest Online Launches to Celebrate Live "Offline" Events

Just in time for Coachella and the summer festival season, Everfest, a new digital startup founded last October with very big tangible analog ambitions, today announced the close of its $1.5 million angel round and official launch of what it calls "the world's most comprehensive online festival community" (as in live music, arts, food festivals -- essentially anything around which you can organize an offline/physical "real" experiential festival event).  Investors include Bob Kagle of BenchMark Capital and several execs from Google.

I have come to know this company and its high-octane co-founder, co-CEO and "Chief Explorer" Paul Cross well (Paul's co-founders are Jay Manickam (co-founder of uShip) and Brad Dixon (EVP of uShip).  And, I like the company's vision so much that I joined as an Advisor, together with Kagle, Sunil Bhatt (CEO of Reservations.com and former GM of Expedia), digital media maven Ken Hertz, author Peter Hirschberg and Joe Alcorta of Wilson (with whom I have done business in the past when CEO of SightSpeed (later acquired by Logitech)). 

While Everfest is a directory of sorts for the festival community -- a one-stop shop of "where to go and what to do" in a community near you -- it aims much higher.  Its ultimate vision is "to create a full festival community of revelers, festival organizers and brands" and to build "applications that connect and thrill each of these groups."  And, other big names are watching.  TechCrunch -- in today's article titled "Do Something Epic With Everfest's Festival Finder" -- just featured Everfest and concluded that Paul and his team have the potential to "become an essential tool for the adventurous."

I actually think the opportunity is MUCH bigger than that.  It is to be the home for festival goers -- and the overall festival and "experience" lifestyle -- period.   That lifestyle is something near and dear to my family -- both major family vacations this year are major music festivals ("Live Earth" in Paris in June, and "Outside Lands" in San Francisco in August).  That's why I signed up to be an Advisor to Paul and the company.

As several of my long-time readers know, one of my favorite recurring themes is the online/virtual world fueling the proliferation of (and need for) real, authentic and tangible offline/physical experiences.  In fact, I wrote about this specifically in the live event/festival context for Wired in an article titled "Media's Online-Offline Nexus: Connecting Virtual, Physical Worlds."  I further expanded this in my later piece for Billboard titled, "Digital Tech, Helping Monetize and Expand the Live Music Experience."

Well, Everfest hopes to be that connective tissue.  

And, it's absolutely the right time for this festival experience to launch.

5 Reasons Jay Z's Tidal Has A Shot (at the Title?)

Jay Z and his crashing waves of super-friends just launched Tidal -- the long-anticipated mobile-focused music streaming service.  Hot or not?  Will Tidal "matter"?  Can it?  Isn't the much-maligned world of music streaming services over-saturated and under-performing financially as it is (with twin giants Spotify and Pandora still nowhere near profitability under their stand-alone business model)?

Not so fast in this very special case.  Here are ...

5 REASONS WHY TIDAL IS BOTH UNIQUE -- AND A FORCE TO BE RECOGNIZED -- FROM DAY 1:

(1) Jay Z -- period, full stop.  HE is a force.  The force is with him.  And just look at his Jedi mind tricks ... his ability to assemble the star power (from all major music genres) on the stage with him at Monday's launch.  Imagine the logistics of doing just that alone with all the touring, recording, globe-trotting ... even Madge was there! ... which takes me to reason 2,

(2) United Artists.  Remember that iconic major movie company?  Hollywood legends Charlie Chaplin, Mary Pickford and Douglas Fairbanks, among others, financed and birthed that movie company nearly 100 years ago for the same fundamental reason launching the Tidal wave (had to say it at least once) -- i.e., control.   Star power drove United Artists' success back then.  And, imagine the potential power of the stars here, one century later, to drive magnified success in this new golden age of social media and with their individual mega-massive social followings?  Millions upon tens of millions upon hundreds of millions of frenzied followers banded together -- and for the same music "cause."  The United Artist precedent and potential is here.  And, the artists here are invested (literally!) in Tidal's success and will gladly feed Tidal with exclusive, differentiated content (music, videos, fan interaction, real-world non-virtual and tangible fan experiences) -- content not available anyplace else -- in a case of what Jack Black called "stick-it-to-the-man" in the movie School of Rock.  They will also push "the man" (the labels) hard for more artist-friendly economics (and likely share those friendlier economics with all participating artists) ... which takes me to reason 3,

(3) Differentiated User Content & Experience.  Think of the story here -- and think of the word "experience" as I lay it out (because consumers pay for "experiences").  First, you have a slick UI (I have played with the mobile version, which immediately reminded me of the look, ease and simplicity that I immediately saw when I first tried Vessel -- another new digital media iconoclast that is focused on video and hell-bent on disrupting YouTube much in the same way that Tidal is dead set on disrupting Spotify).  Second, you have (or will have) a deep pool of differentiated exclusive content (as I write in Reason (2) above).  And -- contrary to the thinking of some more tech-driven streaming services (Spotify calls itself a technology-first company) -- content (and artist relationships) matter, especially to super-fans.  They may not necessarily pay more just to access the same music they can find elsewhere.  BUT (and this is a critical "but"), they absolutely will pay to get closer to Jay Z and other artists that matter to them individually -- and for the chance to share in experiences not available anyplace else.  THAT too is content my friends!  It's just a broader definition of it.  Third, you have the much ballyhooed high fidelity experience -- which is both real -- and a great marketing story for both users and artists (Neil Young anyone?).  A critical mass of consumers will pay more for quality (Apple products, anyone?) ... which takes me to reason 4,

(4) Tidal Is Beats-ing Apple at Its Own Game. (I kinda' smirk as I write that caption ... forgive me, but one must enjoy simple pleasures!).  As I wrote previously when Apple first bought Beats for $3 billion, two key reasons were Dr. Dre and Jimmy Iovine (and the deep artist cred and relationships they brought to Apple, which is still fundamentally a hardware/tech DNA-based company despite its media trappings).  It is that artist visibility, cred, stamp of approval, and overall "cool" that immediately differentiated Apple's coming-soon Beats Music service from the other streaming behemoths.  Well, lookie lookie here.  Jay-Z paid $56 million for Tidal's "Aspire" platform -- and certainly millions more to spruce it up -- but its star power shines significantly more brightly right here right now.  Cupertino is cringing.  It's not quite the Dre Day that the good Dr. hoped for ... which brings me to reason 5,

(5) Other Mega-Mobile Players Will Stand Up, Take Notice & Partner with Tidal.  Apple has Beats Music.  Its business model is to deploy Beats Music as the Trojan Horse to drive incremental and primarily mobile hardware sales (iPhones and iPads) -- its leviathan revenue stream.  Countless other mega-companies -- who live in Apple's mobile "space" (and compete directly with the Apple machine) -- need to play that same "music-as-Trojan-Horse" game to fuel their own decidedly non-media core business models.  And, that means significant and global distribution partnerships await to propagate Tidal's wave (okay, I said it twice!).  Sprint is only the first.  Stay tuned for more -- including both wireless operators (like Sprint) and hardware/handset companies (like Samsung, ultimately in lieu of Milk Music?) -- who become smitten by Tidal's sexy story.

To be clear, I am not saying that Tidal will sweep over and drown the competition -- or even "win" and be profitable as a stand-alone business (although many other definitions of "winning" come into play for artists with Tidal, as I allude to above).  Other massive players already exist -- Spotify, Pandora, and Apple's coming re-imagined Beats Music.

But, let's be clear.  I am saying this (and I ain't April "foo foo foo foolin'" when I say it).

Tidal is real.

Tidal is changing the game.

Tidal is damn interesting ....