5 Reasons Apple's Netflix-Killer Will Be a Smash Hit

The worst-kept secret is very much alive again -- i.e., Apple hopes to launch its long-anticipated (overdue?) OTT video service by fall.  To be clear -- with Apple, it has always been a question of "when," not "if" (I wrote about this about one month ago in a detailed overview of the entire OTT space).

Here are 5 reasons Apple's "Netflix killer" will be a massive hit when the inevitable becomes reality:

(1) It's Apple!  That's all many of you need to know.  You will immediately sign up in droves just like you line up in droves anytime Apple launches a new hardware product.  No product reviews are necessary for you.  You just trust that it will be good.  It's downright Pavlov-ian -- you can't help yourselves.

(2) Many of you will ditch Netflix.  Yes, you and the rest of the planet already have Netflix subscriptions.  But, unlike Netflix, Apple will offer both VOD AND live/linear TV (Netflix's Achilles heel).  And, switching costs are low (essentially non-existent -- with two important caveats below).  All you need to do is go online and cancel. That's the beauty of Netflix and other non-linear TV OTT services for you.  (But, that's certainly not beautiful for Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Hulu.  That's a real problem that can be countered only with two things: (i) content -- both (a) kick-ass original content like House of Cards, and (b) content depth that Apple will not have for a long time; and (ii) price -- Netflix's price will be lower (although Apple can do what Netflix can't -- subsidize content licensing costs via hardware sales -- a fundamentally different business model)).

(3) Millions of you already have Apple TV's.  That means one software upgrade and BAM!, you got your iTV!  Netflix doesn't have that seamless "hardware/software" advantage (an Apple hallmark).  Of course Apple will place its new OTT video service front and center and give it to you for free (for several months).  The user experience will be compelling.  You will try it!  And, then you will let your credit card auto-renew.

(4) Millions more will buy new Apple TV's.  Heck, those crafty Cupertino-ians are practically giving them away now -- dropping the price to $69.  That's just two weeks of Starbuck lattes!  (And here's a tantalizing thought.  What if Apple's New "Netflix killer" is just the app-e-teaser for the main event -- its launch of the long-anticipated all-in-one real iTV -- something about which I first wrote 5 years ago?  'Tis a real possibility.  After all, Steve Jobs always called the current little Apple TV black box a "hobby."  This could be time for the real thing).

(5) It will feature ESPN and HBO.  This is the programming 1-2 punch.  Apple TV already is alone with HBO's new stand-alone HBO Now service (a 90 day exclusive).  And, Dish's Sling TV already cracked the code with ESPN, so the door is wide open for Apple so long as it pays just like the other Pay TV guys (which it absolutely will for ESPN, the most necessary programming ingredient).  Netflix, of course, doesn't have either.  (One more little detail -- don't forget that ESPN is owned by Disney, and Disney's Chairman & CEO Bob Iger sits on Apple's board.)

Apple's "Netflix killer" -- it came, we saw, they conquered!