Yes, I was early (way early!) - but, content was always the problem (not the hardware/tech) and timing is finally right for this to happen later this year (just in time for the Xmas season). Several things lead me to this conclusion:
(1) Apple's "hallmark" is seamlessly marrying compelling software/services with beautiful hardware, with the effect being to create what the Apple faithful consider to be the best customer experiences out there. That's why the Apple brand means so much. So, as I have always written, Apple could not enter the real iTV game without first having the compelling content package (including live/linear TV like ESPN and HBO) necessary to pull that kind of user experience off.
Well, now it appears that Apple may have finally cracked that inhibiting code -- with rumors abounding that Apple's "Netflix-Killer" will launch this fall (here's my separate 5-reason analysis why Apple's OTT video service will be a smash hit at launch). As soon as I heard that news, I immediately concluded in my own mind the next logical step -- time was right for the iTV to finally see the light of day.
(2) Giving more credence to me, I was told by a credible source (who, in turn, heard from a credible source -- yes, I concede this is indirect) that the iTV is being manufactured right now and will feature a rollable display -- which truly would revolutionize the mass-market "TV" business. And, Apple generally doesn't release anything -- especially when it is as late as it is here in this TV game -- unless it believes it has a marketing story that is untouchable. And this "hardware as software" headline would be pretty damn good:
THE NEW PORTABLE "ANYWHERE" ITV, WITH ROLLABLE DISPLAY, ESPN & HBO
(3) Steve Jobs always called the current Apple TV a "hobby" -- implying that it was only the prequel to the main event. And, Walter Isaacson's authorized biography of Steve Jobs' put an exclamation on this point, underscoring, in Jobs' own words, that he absolutely was going there to build a full-fledged integrated "TV":
“I’d like to create an integrated television set that is completely easy to use ... It would be seamlessly synced with all of your devices and with iCloud. No longer would users have to fiddle with complex remotes for DVD players and cable channels. It will have the simplest user interface you could imagine. I finally cracked it."
(4) And, finally, at Apple's latest major press event a few weeks back, CEO Tim Cook expressly teased about even more compelling things to come later this year -- and he wasn't talking about the Apple Watch. And, it makes sense to me that he drops the price of the current "hobby" Apple TV by $30 in advance of the main event -- think of it as being the Nano-ization of the TV ecosystem. You have a mass market, extremely inexpensive Nano-ized Apple TV (the current one) -- and then you have the fully-featured, fully-priced iPod-like iTV (the coming one).
Yes, the television game is one of historical low margins. But, if Apple has demonstrated anything, it is that consumers are willing to pay significantly higher prices (with significantly higher margins) for its products. The mass market PC (v. Mac) is one prime example. And, don't forget this additional critical piece -- an iTV with an integrated OTT streaming service gives Apple immediate access to a treasure trove of our personal data (viewing habits, etc.) that, in turn, offers the potential to accelerate sales of all Apple products (not just iTVs). In other words, it could be a powerful driver of the entire Apple eco-system.
If true, is Apple done dominating our world wherever we are? Where else can the Cupertino crew take us in its quest for hardware world domination?
On the road, naturally.
Apple's iCar -- Apple buying Tesla -- something I first speculated (and analyzed the logic of) nearly two years ago (well before those rumors abounded).
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