Disney Accelerator Class of 2015 - My Picks (& Pics of Mentor Open House)

 

Disney's highly visible tech accelerator -- appropriately named simply the "Disney Accelerator" -- hosted its open house yesterday for Mentors (am proud to be one of them) to meet the incoming Class of 2015.  10 innovative start-ups hand-picked by the Mouse House -- ranging from robotics (Open Bionics enables amputees to use 3D printing to create affordable bionic hands ... how cool is that?), to artificial intelligence (Imperson enables fans to have conversations with their favorite movie and TV characters, or any character period).  (That's me to the left with long-time friend Marc Zachary, a VP of Disney Interactive.)

Given my increasingly immersive focus, my two stand-outs were:

(1) EMOTIV -- a bioinformatics company that uses EEGs to track mental performance, monitor emotions (including stress levels), and control virtual and physical objects with thoughts (that's me to the right demo-ing with CEO Dr. Geoffrey Mackellar).  Imagine the possibilities here?  Massive.  Not only the obvious (such as focus group testing for media companies), but also much wider applications like overall health and wellness (once again, monitoring stress levels as one example); and

(2) Littlstar -- a VR company that aggregates leading virtual reality content with its device-agnostic discovery and distribution platform (think of it kind of like being a "YouTube for VR").  I spent time with CEO Ben Nunez to learn how he plans to compete with YouTube, among others in the burgeoning space.  Others certainly believe in his vision apart from Disney, since Littlstar just recently demo'd at Bertelsmann Digital Media Investment's (BDMI's) Media Summit in NYC a few weeks back.

VidCon Grows Up -- Too Fast? The Authenticity Dilemma (My Review)

The new video world -- it's all about authenticity -- about approachability -- about connection.  That's why 8 of the 10 "stars" that matter most to teens are grass-roots, home-grown YouTube/digital video personalities (and not manufactured traditional Hollywood celebs) (note: I use "YouTube" in this post as a short-hand for all digital-first platforms, including Vine, Facebook, Snapchat, Vessel, etc.).

But what happens when those YouTube stars grow up, make money, and become the more "traditional" celebrities that represent the precise antithesis of how it all was supposed to be in the first place?

THAT's what this past week's VidCon 2015 represented -- and embodied itself -- because the YouTube "celebrity's" struggle is VidCon's own struggle.

Last year, VidCon -- a previously important, yet still quaint, gathering of YouTube stars, Viners and the fans who adore them -- broke through into the more mainstream business world at meaningful scale.  I attended it.  Was blown away by it.  And especially enjoyed the purity and energy of it, as thousands of fans (mostly teen girls) screamed and mobbed their favorite digital celebs (mostly teen boys) in a form of never-ending Beatle-mania.  At the time, one year ago in a widely-read post, I remarked that as much as I felt I knew the new digital world order prior to attending VidCon 2014, I didn't really understand it until I was truly immersed in it -- immersed in what drove the whole YouTube economy in the first place.  The creators.  The fans.  And, the authenticity, approachability and connection between them.  No YouTuber was off limits to their fans at last year's VidCon -- the connection was made (frequently physically).  You needed to be there -- to experience it -- to truly "get" it (I labeled it a "must attend" event at the time).

This year was different.  You could feel it.  I did.  I remarked at it.  Was disappointed by it.  Even a bit nostalgic about it.

To a certain extent, VidCon 2015 represented innocence lost.  The fans' screams were fewer.  Quieter.  Muted.  The frenetic running to see their favorite creator was reigned in.  Slowed.  Controlled.  And those previously eager, open and hyper-connecting YouTube personalities were visibly less accessible -- and many seemingly wanted it to be that way.  As I drove away one night, I noticed black Escalade after Escalade hidden in the back alleys of the Anaheim Convention Center, whisking many of those fast-becoming more "traditional" YouTube celebrities away from their fans.  Distancing them.  Separating them.  Breaking (with accelerating speed) the fundamental tenet of YouTube authenticity -- i.e., accessibility and connection.

By all conventional measures (i.e., pure numbers, overall organization), VidCon 2015 was a smashing success.  VidCon organizers have built a world-class, "must attend" event.  And, the media, brand and tech worlds of business finally took notice en masse and attended in droves as I urged them to.

But, that very business success -- just like the increasing business and financial success of YouTube celebrities -- is a double-edged sword.  The young, innocent, no-holds-barred and still-upstart YouTube world of last year has grown up fast this past year into a more mature, more cautious world that is beginning to feel more "traditional" ... and, somehow, a bit less "authentic" as a result.  

I understand this of course.  It's inevitable.  The natural order of things.  Digital-first is now simply first -- i.e., "traditional" -- for millennials.  That's why it's increasingly (and properly) first for the media world that wants to reach them.  It's increasingly (and properly) first for business, period ("billions of dollars" of business).  And, it's now increasingly (and understandably) the first business -- vocation -- for myriad new home-grown, bottoms up creators (YouTube trumpeted the fact that 50% more of them made 6 figures this year than last).  VidCon -- as I also learned -- had no choice but to install new security procedures and fan controls as a result of all of these forces.  To protect those YouTube celebrities (and the fans themselves) from last year's frequently unbridled hyper-enthusiastic-driven forces (including near-stampedes) -- all motivated by the purest and most innocent of intentions -- that apparently (and understandably) frightened many (and potentially endangered some).

But VidCon -- here's my challenge to you.  Let's not control too much next year.  Let's open up more tickets for fans.  Let's allow (encourage?) more screaming.  Let's bring back more access.  Fewer limousines (more "regular," non-traditional new world electric cars perhaps that represent a new ethos for millennials?).  Fewer velvet ropes (I admit, I was guilty of sponsoring one such event myself).  And, YouTube stars -- let's not control too much of that original spontaneous and pure motivation and passion that fueled your creativity (and your fans' love for it) in the first place.  Let's not buy into the same trappings that disconnected traditional Hollywood celebs from your fans and made you "stars" in the first place (I mean, do you really need limousines?).  Remember, YOU are defining the new rules of celebrity and artist/fan engagement.  You have a chance to break the mold.

To be clear, money and business that flow from creativity and passion are not the enemy here.  Money enables the artist to devote himself or herself to the very act of creation -- and business provides the means and screens to create and be seen.  I'm in that business.  Believe in it absolutely.

But, let's not let the pendulum swing too far.  Let's, together, not lose sight of what moved us and the overall YouTube movement (and what it represents) in the first place ... authenticity, approachability, and connection.  

I certainly don't have the answers.  Maybe there are none.  But, let's, together, at least reflect upon this while we are still relatively early on in this digital transformation and before the forces behind it themselves become, well, simply conventional ....

Facebook v. YouTube - My VidCon Interview

VideoInk's Todd Longwell interviews me at VidCon -- discussing Facebook versus YouTube (is it really a zero-sum game?) and all things video.  The meat of the interview starts at the 90 second point.

YouTube's VidCon Keynote - The 4 Big Stories

YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki took center stage at VidCon day 1, giving a 20 minute keynote and then answering some astute, challenging questions from BroadbandTV CEO Shahrzad Rafati for 20 minutes more.  These were no softballs -- question is whether Wojcicki saw these questions in advance.  Didn't really seem like it, because several of the most challenging questions (see below) were somewhat awkwardly deflected (guess which ones? Yes, those questioning YouTube's economics).



Here are my HEADLINES/KEY STORIES from the YouTube Keynote and Q&A:

(1) THE ECONOMICS STORY -- We all know many in the industry (certainly YouTube's increasing number of competitors) slam YouTube for its 55/45 economics they say are unworkable for creators (Jason Calacanis anyone?) -- and work for YouTube only.  Raft directly asked Wojcicki about YouTube's own direct revenues and creator monetization.  This was Wojcicki's most unsatisfying answer, as she rather obviously (and not the most artfully) deflected it.  She didn't respond to the "YouTube revenue" question at all, instead pointing out that creators soon will have more opportunities to monetize via subscriptions and YouTube-funded originals.  "Some can even write books."  And, in her presentation, she also emphasized that 50% more creators made "six figures" this year than last on YouTube.  Yes, that's true of course.  YouTube can be (and has been) a great launching pad (case in point -- YouTube now counts nearly 25 creators with over 10 million subscribers, each of whom will now have a diamond "button").  The question is, however, (i) how many creators and what percentage of overall creators earn six figures (unanswered) and (ii) how many (and what percentage of) creators can really monetize beyond their 55/45 split.

(2) THE FACEBOOK STORY -- One year ago, YouTube was essentially the only game in town for creators.  Not anymore.  Facebook, Snapchat, Vessel ....  Raft asked Wojcicki about Facebook (and cited its increasingly impressive number of views metric) -- and how she felt about seeing YouTube creators now "off" YouTube and on other platforms.  Wojcicki didn't directly mention Facebook, but she implicitly did -- stating that YouTube believes that viewer engagement (as measured via actual "watch time") is more important than the number of views (meaning that YouTube believes Facebook's reported metrics are less meaningful -- which may be true, by the way).  She also highlighted the fact that YouTubers spent 60% more time watching videos this year than last (which is a truly impressive number).

(3) THE VR/IMMERSIVE STORY -- This may be THE product story for YouTube at VidCon this year.  Watch out all you VR startups out there who want to be "the YouTube for VR content."  YouTube wants to be the YouTube for VR -- and is moving fast.  A key initiative is to showcase more and more 360 video, including "immersive" 3D 360 video.  To underscore this point, YouTube gave away free Google Cardboard to all keynote attendees.

(4) THE STEALTH VERTICAL FOCUS (& MCN THREAT) STORY -- While Wojcicki emphasized YouTube's top 3 product priorities as being "mobile, mobile, mobile," the real story here is YouTube's direct attack on vertical-focused video digital-first companies on and off YouTube (i.e., MCNs).  One key selling point to creators and MCN viewers has been focus -- "if you are a gamer, come to Machinima, we are the home to content that matters to you and you only" (you don't need to sift it out from all the noise).  YouTube's new answer to this critique (and the growing success of vertically-focused, yet significantly smaller, competitors) is to create and launch separate vertically-focused channels, each with their own separate mobile apps.  First, YouTube Kids.  Next, YouTube Gaming.  And, third, YouTube Music Key (which may be launched under a new name).  And, you can bet this is just the beginning.  So, watch out MCNs, the hand that feeds may be biting back.  Your MPN strategy is right on.

VidCon - 5 Table Topics to Sound Smart

VidCon 2015 starts today - the "must attend" video event of the year (check out The Hollywood Reporter Natalie Jarvey's excellent preview).  So, what has changed in the past year since the last VidCon?  A helluva lot, that's what.  The digital-first video world has grown up ... fast, furious and, to some, frighteningly.  Jarvey correctly points out that VidCon is the new Comic-Con (and Hollywood has finally taken notice).

Here are 5 of the most significant industry changes in the past 12 months (that you can use in your cocktail conversations).  Consider these your "table topics" that show you are on top of your game.

(1) The Rise of the "Off YouTube" Movement.  Until this year, YouTube dominated VidCon in virtually every respect.  I even referred to our digital-first world as the "YouTube economy."  But, we have seen massive growth in new major platforms for video distribution in the past year -- most significantly the threat of Facebook, the intrigue of Snapchat, and the chutzhpah of Vessel.  And, these are just some.  The point is that creators want to be everywhere.  Yes, on YouTube.  But, not exclusively.

(2) MCNs Are Now MPNs.  This flows from point (1).  The term "multi-channel network" connotes essentially one channel of distribution (YouTube).  Most "formerly known as MCNs" now consider themselves MPNs (as in, "multi-platform network") -- YouTube, Facebook, Snapchat, Vessel, Apple TV, etc.  Social sharing is a critical element of distribution.

(3) Aggregation Is Not Enough.  Last year, it (i.e., MCNs/MPNs) were all about scale -- and Maker Studios (Disney) and Fullscreen (Otter Media) were rewarded for it via mega-M&A.  That world is no more.  In the expected second wave of MCN/MPN M&A -- which recently kicked off with ProSieben/Collective Digital Studio (CDS) deal -- a multiple meaningful revenue streams story matters.  Yes, ad sales, branded content, sponsorships.  But, also the "upstreaming of content" to other platforms via lucrative licensing deals -- and ultimately commerce and more.

(4) Original Programming/IP & Key Talent Are Critical.  This flows directly from point (3) above.  Not only is original programming (exclusive content) an important form of competitor differentiation, it is a critical element of monetization.  A compelling library of exclusive, original content/IP (e.g., characters, themes -- in addition to the videos themselves) can be licensed to multiple distribution platforms (even TV, movies based on that IP) for increasingly big cash.  As an example, CDS's movie Fred has generated millions upon millions of dollars over time.  And, as a corollary to this original programming/exclusive content point, it is critical for digital-first media companies to hold onto their "star" talent -- something that is increasingly difficult to do given increasingly vicious competition for that top differentiating talent.

(5) Pay TV Bundles Crumbled & Stand-Alone OTTs Rocketed.  One year ago, Pay TV bundles still were largely intact -- and, while chatter existed that a "new world order" of unbundling was coming, most still considered that time to be far off.  That all changed late last year with HBO's "HBO Now" shot across the bow.  HBO opened the floodgates, and Showtime, Nickelodean, CBS, and myriad others flowed (at an accelerating pace).  We seem to see new announcements almost weekly).  No one knows what this ultimately means for media industry monetization on a grand scale, but some believe even ESPN -- the seemingly invincible network that perhaps benefits most in a bundled world-- is in deep transformative trouble.

Now go grab your bloody mary's and start the conversation ... and sound smart while you're doing it.

VR - Not A Separate Category - Rather A Broad New Form of Customer Engagement, Period.

Virtual reality (VR) is rightly top of mind in the media/tech communities - and in my own writing and mentorship.  Virtually all with whom I discuss virtual reality talk about VR like it is a separate and distinct "product" category -- something divorced and distinct from their day-to-day businesses.

Only it isn't -- that's the reality.

VR is -- or certainly will be -- an integrated and integral part of business period.  And of customer engagement and an overall customer experience (not just another media and entertainment immersive experiential story-telling platform).  VR visionary Mike Rothenberg of Rothenberg Ventures -- who puts his money where his mouth is (by funding VR companies through his first-ever VR accelerator, River) -- drove this point home to me in a recent conversation.  He pointed out example after example of VR's broad application in the business world -- architecture, for example (imagine exploring spaces realistically, immersively).

In this holistic way, VR is not unlike the digital video and social worlds that gather later this week at VidCon in Anaheim.  Video and social are not just about story-telling -- not just about media, entertainment and tech.  These are simply new and transformative modes of communication, interaction and engagement.  That means that they are fundamental to any business, including yours and mine.

Worth contemplating, immersively ...

MCN M&A -- Another (Predicted) One Bites The Dust -- ZoominTV

The appetite for MCN-related M&A remains un-sated.  In the immortal words of Queen -- appropriate in this case of British MCN-ish company Zoomin.TV-- "another one bites the dust."  And, I mean that in the most positive way for Zoomin, since a controlling interest of 51% was just sold to Modern Times Group in a deal that values the company at nearly $100 million.  Variety identifies under-the-radar Zoomin (a company few in the U.S. video world know) as being, surprisingly, "the world's 5th largest multi-channel network."

This is another MCN-related M&A deal I just recently predicted -- calling Zoomin an MCN "ripe for M&A."  And, this most recent deal -- which follows fast on the heels of ProSieben's recent acquisition of a controlling interest in Collective Digital Studio -- is yet another sign that we likely have entered Wave 2 of MCN M&A.

I have come to know CEO Jan Riemens -- whom I just recently visited in Amsterdam -- and congratulate him and his team for a nice "win," which also better resources him grow the company at an accelerated pace (and share in further value creation down the road, since 49% was retained).

VidCon This Week - "Must Attend" - Here's Why

[VidCon -- the premier "gathering place" for the new digital economy and ecosystem -- starts later this week in Anaheim, California.  I'll be there Thursday and Friday -- including co-hosting an exclusive event with YouTube.  

If you don’t know VidCon, you should.  In fact, you must.  It's all about everything that IS digital video -- YouTube, YouTube “celebrities,” all new "off YouTube" video platforms (like Facebook, Snapchat, Vessel), Viners, MCNs, OTTs, and all of the brands, ad-tech companies, data analytics companies, VCs, and others that support them.  This one is NOT to be missed.  

Here’s why.  Here’s my in-depth article after experiencing my first VidCon last year.  This should give you an idea of why VidCon matters.]

VidCon 2014 --  like the 1892 Chicago World’s Fair that heralded a new era of disruptive technology (how do you like that reference?) -- this may be the event upon which we look back and say, for media companies, brands, and marketers, “this was the moment that defined the mainstreaming of premium short form video content and consumer engagement via technology and the fundamental overall transformation of the media and marketing business in general.”

That is no hyperbole -- that analogy is apt, and this sea change is real, very real.  And to “get” -- really “get” -- that fundamental point (from which fundamental strategic shifts inevitably must follow -- or not, at your peril), you just gotta be there.  On the ground.  At VidCon.  You just gotta see and “feel” the energy of the throngs of 10-20 year old kids who scream and swarm -- a la “back in the day” with The Beatles (another bell-weather of things to come at that time) -- every time they saw a YouTube “star”.  Those shrieks -- that frenzy -- happened every 10-15 minutes (or more) throughout the 7 hours I attended my first VidCon yesterday.

And those 7 hours cemented -- even more deeply -- what I had already concluded (but hadn’t really “felt” on a mass scale with the new generation of consumers -- i.e., the kids that media and brands want and need to reach right now).  That you better get on the bus in this transformed YouTube economy or forever be left behind (this picture of the kids with the signs says it all).  I was not alone with the deep internalization of this point.  Long-time digital media exec David Hyman -- who founded MOG music (acquired by Beats Music) and with whom I interacted “back in the day” at Musicmatch when he was with Gracenote (acquired by Sony) -- summarized it perfectly.  In his words, “This Blows My Mind!”  I violently agreed.

But it is not just about the fans.  VidCon brings together industry execs and the creative community together with the fans -- something that is rarely done at industry conferences (Comic-Con is another rare example).  And here’s the point -- all media companies and brands need to have their minds blown.  We are in the midst of a sea-change people.  Fundamental sea-change.  The media business -- and the way that marketers/brands engage with consumers -- will never be the same.

But, the vast majority of media and marketing execs still just don’t “get” it (or don’t want to “get” it and hope to wish these transformative/disruptive changes away).

One glaring example.  YouTube apparently invited the top 100 brands to attend VidCon -- to experience it -- on their dime.  Yes, YouTube offered to pay for all of their expenses.  But you know what?  Only 30 of those 100 brands took them up on that offer!  That is insane!  Those other 70 marketing execs should be, um, demoted!  They will be if they don’t change their mindsets fast, because their worlds are being rocked right now.  And, the pace of this transformation (disruption, or whatever you want to call it) is accelerating.

 Here is another example.  These 10-20 somethings “think different” -- they just do.  The world of YouTube has wired their brains differently -- and their sensibilities are just different (and in many ways, refreshing).  Gone are the days -- at least for them -- of the traditional definition of “Celebrity.”  Yes, they still may like the boys of One Direction, but “celebrities” of this new media age are fundamentally different from the celebrities of yore.  They are relatable.  They are approachable.  They are authentic.  They are just simply “regular” kids who somehow amassed a frenzied following using the YouTube platform.  That’s why, no matter how many times they were accosted at VidCon yesterday, they stopped, talked and took pictures with the kids who adore them.  Again, the only way to really “get” this is to attend VidCon -- to swim in that sea of kids -- to watch how they react.  To watch how they cry after meeting their favorite YouTube “star” (yes, I saw several girls crying because that experience was simply overwhelming).  If you have any doubts, just watch these two videos (the first shows screaming girls flock to YouTube “star” Ricky Dillon -- and the second shows fellow stars Kingsley and Lilly Singh take the stage for a Q&A).  VidCon 2014, among other things, was Coachella for Kids! (I coined that, so don’t use unless you give me royalties ...).

 One more glaring example underscoring how the media world has changed for Gen Z took place when legendary media mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg took the stage for a fireside chat following a panel of digital media/YouTube economy execs.  In the words of a colleague who attended that event, “the room was packed, but half the people left when Katzenberg took the stage.”  To be clear, this is no slam on Katzenberg.  He absolutely fills (and overflows) a room in the “traditional” media world.  But, that’s the point.  That world is gone.  Nothing is “traditional” anymore.  For media execs.  For marketing execs.  (Fortunately for DreamWorks, Katzenberg “gets” it -- that’s why DreamWorks is ahead of the curve with its acquisitions of MCNs AwesomenessTV and Big Frame, as well as its recent launch of YouTube network Dreamworks TV (about which I recently wrote)).  Doesn’t mean that “traditional” media has no role in this brave new world -- it just means that so-called traditional media platforms (TV, motion pictures, etc.) are now just part of the overall multi-platform spectrum and world in which we live.

VidCon 2014.  For me, the single most important and “must attend” industry event of the year.  I would argue that it should be the same for media, marketing and brand execs.

Digital Video Companies to Watch -- BDMI Media Summit 2015

[This article was originally posted in VideoInk.]

Earlier this week, I joined the VideoInk team in NYC for the Bertelsmann Media Summit 2015, a showcase for promising digital media-focused companies organized by German media-backed venture capital firm Bertelsman Digital Media Investments (BDMI).  BDMI has invested in a powerful portfolio of leading digital video companies – most of which were featured here, together with a few other select companies with which they are, in the words of Managing Director Urs Cete, “friendly” (translation -- he hopes to invest).

BDMI is no stranger to success in the digital video game.  Two of its portfolio video companies – StyleHaul and Drama Fever – reaped big headlines and investor returns (and those were only 2 of BDMI’s 10 exits last year).  Impressive.  Given this kind of digital video focus and success, it’s good to know who BDMI believes is worthy of their time and money (note: BDMI’s venture fund invests $500K-$4 million; its seed fund invests $50K-$250K). 

Here’s my round-up of yesterday’s video-focused presenting companies:

JUKIN MEDIA

First up – L.A.-based Jukin’ Media -- which, as I recently wrote, is top of mind of most who closely follow the digital video landscape (including many large strategics). The company is, in a word, “hot” – and for good reason.  Authentic and passionate Founder/CEO Jonathan Skogmo bills Jukin’ as being the world’s #1 viral video media company.  And, who can dispute that with 1.5 billion monthly views off a library of 18,000 UGC-powered videos (each of which Jukin’ acquired and owns outright)?

Jukin’s video library is at the center of its stellar monetization universe: (1) clip licensing (think Getty Images for viral videos); (2) digital syndication (monetizing trending clips for both traditional TV partners like Comedy Central and digital partners like Yahoo!); and (3) original programming (such as its successful FailArmy show that has spawned multiple global renditions and lucrative licensing opportunities). 

Jukin’ also has a more conventional “MCN-ian” side to it – streaming its own brands that drive 250 million monthly views (which, Skogmo explains, gives Jukin’ a way to test video success first on digital and then optimize for upstreamed traditional platforms).  But, while others frequently include Jukin’ in MCN round-ups, Jonathan calls his unique multi-pronged revenue model “MCNX” – as in, an MCN on steroids.  Well played, Jonathan, well played.

MITU

Founder & CEO Roy Burstin took center stage to showcase his Latino-focused digital-first video company, LA-based Mitu, that deserves to be featured on that center stage.  Burstin, like Skogmo, distances himself from the traditional “MCN” label, calling Mitu “a media brand powered by technology and fueled by Latinos.”  He emphasized the “underleveraged” global Latino market for media and bemoaned the lack of culturally relevant content for a demographic he calls “super consumers.”  That is Mitu’s focus and vast opportunity – and the company drives the largest community of Latino video creators in the world (3,600). 

Burstin says Mitu’s “secret salsa” (many chuckled as he said it) is its technology – a depth of intelligence that enables creators to reach the right audience with the right content and across the right distribution platforms.  He explained that Mitu produces content natively -- meaning that a creator’s video “story” may be told in 7 seconds on Vine, 90 seconds on YouTube, and longer on other upstreamed platforms. 

Intriguing.  And, like Jukin’, another one to closely watch.  Mitu is one of BDMI’s “friends” – not yet part of its investment family.  Not yet ….

THIRTY LABS

Video incubator Thirty Labs – co-founded by an all-star cast that includes serial media and tech innovator Fred Seibert (who runs leading animation-focused MCN Frederator) – was a decidedly different animal amongst presenting companies.  But, BDMI is an investor – and membership has its privileges.  Thirty Labs’ mission is to find great nascent video-first companies, grow them (fast!), and nurture them with multiple layers of support – strategy, core tech, and capital (of course).  Efficiencies and acceleration are key value propositions here. 

Co-Founder Yoel Flohr showcased several of its portfolio companies, including Tuubi (a native video network for mobile games), Melt (a mobile video creation and sharing network which enables users to create 10-second silent films inspired by a daily prompt), FastCap (which, as the name implies, is focused on capturing videos in the moment), and Crumbles (a messaging app via which users can instantaneously create auto-generated videos from a clip library – seemingly a la Whipclip -- as well as a user’s own clips).

IRIS.TV

CEO Field Garthwaite presented IRIS.TV -- what he calls the “Pandora for video publishers,” programmatically delivering a continuous stream of “the right content to the right person at the right time.”  IRIS is all about deepening engagement and retention (he cited one major customer for which video views increased 54% and customer retention climbed 70%).  IRIS’s can help to maximize the value of a publisher’s video archive.

EPOXY

In a digital/online video world that is inherently multi-platform and social in nature, CEO Juan Bruce explained, Epoxy gives video creators the tools they need to develop, syndicate, and monetize their videos and effectively engage their audience.  That general vision attracted capital from the likes of Time Warner and Greycroft in addition to BDMI.

VHX

CEO Jamie Wilkinson introduced VHX’s direct distribution platform for film, TV and other content (such as workout videos) that previously lived primarily in a DVD world.  He calls VHK a “Wordpress for OTT” – offering a full turn-key solution for video creators, enabling direct-to-fan distribution and direct sales from their own (generating $6+ million to date for creators).  Comedy Central is one major media partner that recently used VHX to launch its own digital comedy hub.  VHX isn’t stopping there -- it operates its own OTT streaming service.  

VICTORIOUS

Victorious is another LA-based company that is on a mission to give mobile video creators robust tools to build superfan-fueled communities around their content.  CEO Sam Rogoway explained the opportunity to fuel deeper engagement via direct fan-to-fan video creation and real-time interaction.  That fan (hyper)active activity leads to a continuous stream of fresh curated content for a “celebrity” video creator (like client Ryan Higa) or even a traditional brand (like a weekly television show).  With more to see, there is more of you to remember.

The company, which officially launched 2 months ago, has launched 10 creator-focused apps to date – and plans to hit 100 by year-end.  Will be interesting to watch those engagement numbers closely.  

All in all – strong class of digital-first video innovators – and strong event (with many of the “usual suspects” observing in the room).

MCN Wars - Who's Next In M&A? (Got It Right With CDS)

Last week's acquisition (of a controlling interest) by German media company ProSieben of leading MCN Collective Digital Studio -- one of 5 MCNs I predicted as being "ripe" for acquisition 6 months back -- woke up the MCN M&A game that had been somewhat quiet for the first six months (after a frenetic pace last year).  So, is this deal a "wake up call" for media companies to move on the remaining independent MCNs with scale?

Signs point to "yes."  As I recently wrote in a lengthy analysis of 2015's top digital media deals and trends to date this year, those leading MCNs "are ripe for M&A down the road -- a road that likely just got shorter [last week] because one of their independent brethren (Collective Digital Studio) has just been taken off the table ...."  Other industry insiders agree, including execs from major media companies with whom I have spoken.  And, several followers/influencers within the industry underscore this point even more emphatically.  Sahil Patel of Digiday -- who covers the space very closely -- writes, "If you're a major media company and you're interested in buying a YouTube network, you better hurry up."

And, even more emphatically, research firm Ampere Analysis concludes: "For those players without a stake in the MCN game, sand is rapidly running through the hourglass ... Many media companies are playing a waiting game: the million dollar question now is when to stop waiting and start acting."  Ampere pegs the top 100 MCNs as having a collective value of an eye-popping near-$10 billion (yes, BILLION!) -- and further concludes that 22 MCNs each justify an acquisition price of "at least $100 million" based on previous M&A comps in the space.

I don't know about that (since Ampere's "treat-all-MCNs-the-same" analysis is rather one-dimensional and apparently doesn't consider other relevant valuation factors, including strategic "fit," specific consumer vertical focus, each MCN's focus on and -- amount of -- licensable original programming, and quality of distribution partners, among others).  But, I certainly do believe that MCN M&A will actively continue in the next several months (NOTE: remember, most majors call themselves MPNs now, as in "multi-platform network").  I call this Phase 2 of expected MCN M&A activity -- which ProSieben/Collective Digital Studio (CDS) sparked last week.

HERE ARE MY PREDICTIONS OF WHO COULD BE NEXT (and for those keeping score, in addition to correctly identifying CDS, I had earlier correctly anticipated M&A for Crunchyroll, Fullscreen and StyleHaul):

(1) TASTEMADE -- the leading food and travel MCN (which counts Scripps, Liberty Media, and Comcast as strategic investors, is known and respected for its original programming and brand, and has secured big wins on the distribution side with Apple and Facebook, among others); here is my exclusive interview of CEO Larry Fitzgibbon from last August;

(2) MACHINIMA -- one of the major MCNs that started it all several years back, is gamer/young male-focus, and still has massive scale (and counts Warner Bros. as a strategic investor);

(3) WHISTLE SPORTS -- the leading sports-focused MCN (which counts BSKYB and Liberty Global as strategic investors, has compelling deals with several major sports leagues -- including the NFL -- and features content that "travels well" internationally); here is my exclusive Q&A with CEO John West (note: Whistle is a client of Manatt Digital Media);

(4) MITU NETWORK -- the leading Latino-focused MCN (which counts AMC Networks as a strategic investor);

(5) DANCEON -- the leading dance/music-focused MCN (which features significant original programming that is ripe for upstream licensing to traditional platforms, and which also counts AMC Networks as a strategic investor); here is my exclusive profile about this MCN (note: Manatt Venture Fund is an investor and DanceOn is a client of Manatt Digital Media);

(6) FREDERATOR -- an animation-focused MCN that is somewhat "under the radar" (similar to Collective Digital Studio prior to its acquisition), and which is lead by media industry pioneer Fred Seibert who helped launch MTV and VH-1 and also served as President of animation legend Hanna-Barbera; in other words, his relationships and partnerships with the creative world are legend; and

(7) OMNIA MEDIA -- another digital-first media company that also is very much "under the radar" and is rumored to be in active discussions on the M&A front right now.

And, these are just some of the leading U.S.-based MCNs.  Remember, it's a big world out there -- with several other major MCNs, including German-based Mediakraft.  Many hungry major international media companies exist (cases in point: ProSieben/CDS and RTL Group/StyleHaul).

BONUS PICKS -- JUKIN' MEDIA -- not really an MCN, but also generally in the short-form digital-first space (and with a unique value proposition and multi-faceted business mode -- and also with a strategic media investor -- Bertelsmann Digital Media Investments).  Here is my profile of this very "hot" company about which many are talking.  It wouldn't surprise me if Jukin' were swallowed up first.  I also like WOVEN, which is a bit like a "less angry" Vice -- and is another company that I previously profiled.

What's the common denominator here?  Virtually all of them count major media companies as strategic investors.  And, as we just saw with ProSieben (which previously already held a 20% stake in CDS), strategic investment frequently leads to outright M&A.  Strategics frequently like to "try" before they "buy."  And, in the prescient words of Yoda (a character now owned by Disney and which, in turn, transformed the MCN M&A world and playbook with its near $1 billion purchase of Maker Studios early last year), "buy, they will!"

Let's start counting them down ....

22 MCNs Justify $100+M Price-Tag - So Says Analyst Firm

Last week's acquisition by ProSieben of leading "under the radar" MCN Collective Digital Studio (CDS) -- one of 5 MCNs I identified 6 months back as being "ripe" for acquisition -- may have jump-started Wave 2 of major MCN M&A .  (NOTE: I will publish a deeper analysis -- with my predictions of "who's next" -- Monday morning).  ProSieben pegged the value of that deal at $240 million (for the combined CDS and Studio71 MCNs, together with $83 million in new cash).

In the wake of that deal, research firm Ampere Analysis concludes:

(1) 22 MCNs each justify an acquisition price of "at least $100 million" based on previous M&A comps (the firm relies primarily upon the metric of 1 billion views/month to define these 22 MCNs and then applies a 25-35 multiple on annual revenues); and

(2) the top 100 MCNs as have a collective value of an eye-popping near-$10 billion.  Yes, that's BILLION with a capital "B."

I don't know about that.  Ampere's "treat-all-MCNs-the-same" analysis is rather simplistic and apparently doesn't consider other relevant valuation factors (including strategic "fit," specific consumer vertical focus, each MCN's focus on -- and amount of -- licensable original programming and quality of distribution partners, among others).  But, I certainly believe the MCN M&A race will heat up over the next several months (after being rather cool for the first half of the year).

Here are Ampere's final thoughts on the topic --

 "For those players without a stake in the MCN game, sand is rapidly running through the hourglass ... Many media companies are playing a waiting game: the million dollar question now is when to stop waiting and start acting."

Digital Media's Top Deals, Developments - Q1/Q2 2015 - Your "Cheat Sheet" (& My Predictions)

[REVISED -- to discuss the significance of yesterday's breaking news about German media giant taking a controlling position in leading "under the radar" MCN Collective Digital Studio and to include today's reports that Facebook is developing its own streaming music service a la Spotify and Apple Music]

Six months ago, in an article titled The Future of Digital Media in 2015, TechCrunch posted several of my predictions for the digital media world in 2015.  I later expanded that article for this blog to discuss my Top 10 Digital Media Predictions for 2015.  It's now time to look back at the first 6 months of the year in digital media -- look at the top deals, developments and trends (top 2 trends so far are (1) the accelerating "off YouTube" video movement, and (2) the industry's justified virtual reality (VR) obsession -- more on both below) -- and see how my earlier predictions stand up.  Consider this your "cheat sheet" of important activity in the digital media eco-system.    

Here are my original Top 10 Predictions below -- juxtaposed against where we stand now.


I.  PREDICTION (1)  --  this one was really a two-parter:

PREDICTION (1) Part 1 -- The mobile-driven premium short-form video YouTube economy “grows up,” and traditional media companies finally take notice on a mass scale.  Shell-shocked studio executives internalize that digital-first platforms are where they must be to reach smartphone-obsessed millennials.  MCN acquisitions will quicken as more studios jump into the M&A game rather than try to figure out this new content platform themselves.  Some leading MCNs ripe for acquisition include ... sports-focused Whistle Sports (in which Manatt Venture Fund is invested). 

THE REALITY FOR PART 1, 6 MONTHS LATER 

Interestingly, for the first 6 months of 2015, the pace of MCN-related M&A had slowed -- and had been replaced by an accelerated pace of more cautious strategic investment as media companies struggle to develop their digital-first video strategies and are too afraid to go "all in."  That "lull" proved to be temporary, punctuated by today's breaking news of German media giant ProSieben acquiring a majority stake in leading MCN Collective Digital Studio (CDS) (an MCN that had been flying somewhat "under the radar").  ProSieben had already owned 20% of CDS, so the deal (which values CDS together with its other MCN Studio71 plus significant new cash at $240 million) is logical.  Strategic investors frequently "try" and then later "buy" if they like what they see. 

I have always been bullish on those still-independent MCNs that had become market leaders and achieved significant scale.  These include (i) Whistle Sports (the leading sports-focused MCN and is also a client), (ii) Tastemade (the leading food and travel MCN), (iii) Mitu (the leading Latino-focused MCN), (iv) Machinima (the leading young male/gamer-focused MCN), (v) DanceOn (the leading dance-focused MCN, also a client), (vi) Frederator (another "under the radar" MCN with an animation focus and strong leadership pedigree), and (vii) Zoomin.tv (a Euro-based "under the radar" MCN that has deep video production roots).  All of these are "ripe" for M&A down the road -- a road that likely just got shorter today because one of their independent brethren (CDS) has just been taken off the table as of today.   

So, given all this activity, I think it's safe to conclude that the YouTube economy has "grown up" significantly in the past 6 months -- so much so that it has outgrown YouTube.  Now, for the first time, multiple powerful "off-YouTube" platforms exist, most notably Facebook (about which I just blogged in a detailed analysis) and Snapchat (which launched its highly strategic Discover video feature in January and later coyly announced its plans for global advertising domination).  That's why most MCNs have shed that moniker (which most never really liked anyway) in favor of MPN -- as in, "multi-platform network,"  And, in another trend worth watching, major media companies began to incubate their own MCN-like sites (e.g., Discovery Communications' women-focused TLCme).  

Here's a list of some of the most interesting related developments:

• Sports-focused Whistle Sports raised $28 million from strategics that included Euro-based media giants BSKYB and Liberty Global (Jan | Venturebeat)
• FremantleMedia increased its stake to become the majority owner of leading European MCN Divimove (Jan | Variety)
• Gamer-focused Machinima closed another $24 million financing led by Warner Bros. (Feb | The Wrap)
• Latino-focused MiTú Raised another $15 million from AMC Networks, among others (Feb | Recode)
• StarMaker Raised $6.5 million to grow its music/video app and talent network from Qualcomm Ventures and others (Mar | VideoInk)
• Otter Media's Fullscreen acquired social media studio McBeard (May | THR)
• Euro-based media giant RTL Group -- a true innovator amongst media companies in the digital-first new world order -- organized its overall MCN/MPN-related holdings (StyleHaul, BroadbandTV, SpotXchange and Clypd) into one central entity RTL Digital Hub (Jun | Broadband TV News)

And, certainly more general digital video-centric mega-M&A and mega-strategic investments multiplied, with some notable examples including:

• Live social streaming innovator Meerkat raised $12 million and Twitter launched competing Periscope to steal some (much?) of its thunder (Mar | TechCrunch)
• Verizon acquired once-giant digital media company AOL for $4.4 billion (May | Variety)
• Layer3 TV, the self-described “next-gen cable company,” raised $51 million from Participant Media and CAA among others (Jun | Multichannel)
• Video ad tech company TubeMogul raised $82.9 million in a secondary market offering (Jun | BI)

PREDICTION (1) Part 2 -- International also becomes a major new battleground for these borderless video opportunities.

THE REALITY FOR PART 2, 6 MONTHS LATER 

Not surprisingly, international has become a major battleground -- and even more intensely perhaps than anticipated only 6 months ago.  Here are some key data points (in addition to today's announced ProSieben/CDS deal -- which underscores this borderless global theme):

• Euro-based media powerhouses BSKYB and Liberty Global, as noted above, significantly invested in Whistle Sports' $28 million round
• Warner Bros., Sony Pictures Television and Asian telco giant SingTel created a new joint venture to launch their own "Netflix-Killer" for Asia (Jan | TechCrunch)
• MTV launched new international over-the-top apps, MTV Play (VOD) and MTV Trax (Music Streaming) in Germany, Switzerland and Romania (Feb | DigitalTVEurope)
• Culture Machine -- a new MCN/MPN focused on international content -- raised $18 million (Feb | VideoInk)
• 20th Century Fox partnered with leading Euro-based MCN Rightster to bolster its YouTube presence abroad -- with MCN Rightster's team managing Fox's YouTube marketing strategy for 35 channels across 17 international markets, including the U.K., Germany and France (Apr | THR)
• Canadian cable giants Rogers Communications and Shaw Communications entered into a joint venture to launch a new Canadian "Netflix Killer" called Shomi (May | THR)
• Chinese juggernaut Alibaba announced it too will soon launch its own "Netflix Killer" called TBO -- for China (Jun | Reuters)
• Netflix is now in 50 countries as of June 2015 (with close to 20 million international subs), with a major strategic push to China and plans to launch next in Italy and Portugal (Jun | THR)
• France media powerhouse Vivendi acquired DailyMotion, the YouTube of Europe, for approximately $240 million -- expect continued significant bold moves by this once-sleeping giant in the latter half of this year (Jun | Variety)

II.  PREDICTION (2) -- Major consumer brands follow suit and act in earnest.  Massive marketing dollars shift from traditional media to more measurable digital platforms in the form of branded content (not just ads), cannibalizing the former for the first time.  Major investments are placed on ad-tech companies to maximize and measure those spends.  We see a number of significant ad-tech exits like Yahoo!’s recent acquisition of BrightRoll for $640 million.  Several brands go further and invest big to become digital-first lifestyle media companies themselves a la Red Bull, developing and aggregating content.  GoPro, Pepsi and Marriott have proudly announced such ambitions.

THE REALITY, 6 MONTHS LATER

Certainly, brand activity has likewise accelerated, as brands begin to fully internalize the digital-focused transformation -- and opportunities -- of the media and entertainment business.  Fewer examples of new Red Bull "wannabes" in the first half of this year, but certainly a proliferation of "branded content studios."  And MCNs/MPNs are increasingly cutting out the middleman and playing the role of ad/creative agencies in the digital video eco-system.  Here are some representative examples:

• Conde Nast unveiled its branded content shop powered by editors (Jan | WSJ)
• Relativity agreed to program and develop digital content for Lexus' L/Studio (Feb | THR)
•  iHeartMedia Launched its own branded content studio (Feb | WSJ)
• Fullscreen launched a new strategic content group with former Chernin Group and Hulu execs  (Feb | Variety)
• Kia partnered with Yahoo! to create new branded series (Apr | Digiday)
• CNN unveiled its new studio to produce content for advertisers (Jun | WSJ)

III.  PREDICTION (3)  -- Seeing all this activity, Silicon Valley investors increasingly make pilgrimages down South to the epicenter of media content – LA.  

THE REALITY, 6 MONTHS LATER -- Few doubt this one.  LA is a serious new VC battleground.  Hale Boggs, Chairman of law and consulting firm Manatt Digital Media and the Manatt Venture Fund (which actively invests in digital media companies), confirmed this trend.  "Many principals from major NoCal VCs are spending more time visiting with companies here, and a lot of the larger funding rounds for LA companies are now being led by those VCs," Boggs said.  Some, like Rothenberg Ventures (a highly connected NoCal-based VC which also opened the first virtual reality accelerator, River), have opened new offices in LA.



IV.  PREDICTION (4) -- YouTube is increasingly under siege by new competing video platforms like Facebook and former Hulu chief Jason Kilar’s Vessel.  These “off YouTube” platforms lure content creators away with promises of more compelling care, feeding and economics (including the tantalizing prospect of real subscription revenues).

THE REALITY, 6 MONTHS LATER -- Vessel started the year off with a bang.  But, that bang now feels more like a whimper when compared with Facebook's massive growth (and strategic prioritization) of video -- and Snapchat's own accelerating video focus (including its strategically significant Discover feature).  "Off-YouTube" is a mantra chanted increasingly -- and with increasing volume -- across the globe right now.  The threat is real.  I addressed these developments in detail in two separate blog posts: (1) Facebook v. YouTube - Who Wins? 5 Part Test; and (2) YouTube v. Facebook, Amazon & Apple - Clash of the Video Titans (& the Role of DNA).  But, let's also keep in mind that this is not a zero-sum game.  All of this accelerating activity expands the overall video eco-system pie.  So, yes, YouTube ultimately may hold less overall market share.  But, there also will be much more to share.



V.  PREDICTION (5) -- Traditional pay TV packages likewise increasingly are under fire in the “Great Unbundling” that began in 2014.  What was unthinkable just one year ago (even 6 months ago!) became reality as HBO, CBS, Starz and others announced stand-alone over-the-top (OTT) services.  A parade of others follow suit in 2015.

THE REALITY, 6 MONTHS LATER -- No traditional PayTV bundle is safe anymore.  The "Great Unbundling" is real and comes in two flavors: (1) so-called "Skinny Bundles" --including DISH's Sling TV (which revolutionized the OTT space by giving "must have" ESPN as an add-on option); and Verizon's Custom TV); and (2) stand-alone OTT services (too numerous now to mention, but some of which are identified below).  And, even the kids aren't safe!  Nickelodeon anyone?  Oh yeah, it too launched its own stand-alone OTT subscription service.  In a truly remarkable sign of the times, Cablevision's CEO Kristin Dolan went so far as to speak the previously unspeakable amongst big traditional Pay TV providers -- announcing new "cord cutter" and "cord never" OTT packages.  Well, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.  That's why Pay TV operators are increasingly willing to partner with SVODs (e.g., Cablevision offering Hulu and HBO Now).  Here are some more important developments and deals:

• MTV launched its new international over-the-top apps, MTV Play and MTV Trax (Feb | DigitalTVEurope)
• Sony launched its $50/month Vue OTT service (Mar | CNN)
• In Canada, government regulators mandated sweeping changes to Pay TV packages, requiring providers to allow customers to "pick and pay" individual TV channels (Mar | Reuters)
• Discovery Digital launched new adventure-focused vertical OTT service, Seeker (Mar | Tubefilter)
• Traditional media grand-daddy NBC jumps on the Netflix-ian "binge viewing" band-wagon for its new show Aquarius (Apr | Variety)
• Levity Entertainment Group, backed by Irving Azoff and Madison Square Garden Entertainment, launched new comedy-focused YouTube channel Wait For It (May | Variety)
• Verizon announced its initial content partners for its upcoming mobile-first OTT service, including media giant Scripps (home to Food Network, Travel Channel, HGTV and more) (Jun | Variety)
• AMC Networks began its invite-only beta test of its new horror-focused OTT video service, Shudder (Jun | Variety)
• Discovery Communications announced it plans to launch its all-access OTT service, Dplay (which includes live sports content) later this year first in Denmark, Sweden and Italy (Jun | Variety)
• Showtime just launched its $10.99/month stand-alone OTT video service with initial distribution partners including Apple TV and Roku (July | TechCrunch)

 
VI.  PREDICTION (6) -- Traditional media companies facing these tectonic shift in long-established business models – and major tech companies (Apple, Google, Amazon, Samsung) for which content is increasingly critical to fuel their own – take M&A seriously and one pulls the trigger as media and tech converges … literally. 

THE REALITY, 6 MONTHS LATER -- No mega-M&A deal has materialized quite yet, but major media moves by the major "tech" players continue unabated.  Some examples include (i) Amazon's ever-increasing investment in original programming (it just recently announced that it is "doubling down" on 2014's $1.3 billion original programming budget), and (ii) Apple's inevitable "coming soon" OTT video service (on top of its recently launched Apple Music).  It may be only a matter of time before one of these tech behemoths -- each of which already cloaks itself with media trappings -- tries to make that full transformation real.  At a minimum, Netflix -- the poster child for new, non-traditional media companies -- is directly in the line of sight.  

And, in a significant related trend, telcos have placed themselves directly into the center of this video vortex.  Cases in point: (i) AT&T and The Chernin Group's $500-$600 million Otter Media joint venture; (ii) Verizon's acquisition $4.4 billion acquisition of AOL; (iii) Dish Network's rumored merger talks with T-Mobile; and (iv) whispers to me from an industry insider that Vodafone may be eyeing Liberty Global. 



VII.  PREDICTION (7) -- On the music side, massive moves are made away from business model-challenged stand-alone services (Spotify and Pandora both still operate at a loss).  Like Apple buying Beats (which was never about the economics of Beats Music), numerous potential behemoth buyers exist.

THE REALITY, 6 MONTHS LATER --  No M&A yet.  And, while the M&A market waits, Spotify keeps raising boatloads of money -- the latest being a massive $526 million round announced in June at an $8.53 billion valuation.  For its part, Pandora is also continuing its stand alone ways and has been rumored to be looking to acquire a true on-demand streaming service to weather the increasingly turbulent digital music storm.  And while both Spotify and Pandora still operate at a significant loss, Apple finally launched its long-awaited Apple Music Spotify "Killer."  This puts even greater pressure on those two services.  As I recently wrote in a separate detailed analysis ("Spotify's Hangover From Apple's Hard Cider - 5 Daunting Dilemmas"), Apple can do what the stand-alone behemoths can't -- i.e., lose money in order to drive its over-arching multi-faceted business model.  Putting a further exclamation on this point, just today, reports surfaced that Facebook is developing its own streaming music service to rival both Apple Music and Spotify.  Hell, even Microsoft just joined the party more loudly by re-branding Xbox Music, Groove.  

With all this action (particularly Apple Music), other behemoths (like Amazon, Google, Samsung ... perhaps even Facebook before it launches its own) continue to eye Spotify and Pandora ... from the side-lines ... for now.



VIII.  PREDICTION (8) -- Gamers see real action too, as app developers increasingly focus on story-telling and compelling characters to build multi-platform media companies a la Rovio with Angry Birds.  Rather than take traditional media properties and “gamify” them, these companies flip the model with an Apps-first approach.  Finnish-based Silvermile and Seriously are two companies with Rovio roots to take … well … seriously.  VR also enters the ring with gamers at mass in 2015.

THE REALITY, 6 MONTHS LATER -- Virtual Reality (VR) is the big story of the first 6 months in the digital media world.  VR is absolutely top of mind of virtually everyone in the "industry" now on all sides of the house -- yes, games -- but also movies, education, travel, impact.  On the games front, story-telling in a more strategic, holistic sense, is increasingly the norm with large-scale game developers.  As a result of this frenetic activity, which includes continued massive VR-related investment (that noted futurist and VR thought leader Peter Diamandis already pegs at $5 billion of total invested capital), I have increased my VR-focused writing.  Here are some recent blog posts about the media world's well-placed VR obsession : (i) Virtual Reality Update - Latest Developments; (ii) VR - Power, Potential, Risks ... Thoughts of Leading Innovators In This Immersive Space; (iii) VR - The Engine of Empathy ... And Real Social Change; and (iv) Jaunt, VR & The Future of Media & Entertainment.



IX.  PREDICTION (9)  -- Which leads to wearables, where we see an Oculus under every hard core gamer’s tree next year, alongside their parents’ new digital health/fitness watch.

THE REALITY, 6 MONTHS LATER -- Okay, we now won't see an Oculus under every gamer's tree this XMAS season.  But, I didn't miss it by much.  Oculus just recently announced that it will start selling its first mass consumer headset in early 2016.  That's when things should really take off -- and early stage market leaders like Jaunt and Vantage.TV (a Rothenberg Ventures/River portfolio company) are accelerating content initiatives to meet that capacity -- as are juggernauts like GoPro (which is also harnessing the power of drones -- another major trend to watch -- literally) and Discovery Communications (which recently unveiled Discovery Virtual).  After all, technology isn't holding up mass adoption of VR right now.  Content is.  And, that's changing fast.



X.  PREDICTION (10)  -- All of this leads to the big one – a concept I floated 2 years ago.  Apple buys Tesla and installs Elon Musk as CEO.  Now THAT would be a headline for 2015 … and for the ages!

THE REALITY, 6 MONTHS LATER -- "Hey Elon, it's Tim Cook calling.  Wanna talk?"    



[Special thanks to Manatt Digital Media's Mary Ermitanio for her help assembling much of the data in this article.]